The various terms in Bayes’ theorem have formal names.

  • The quantity on the far right, \( p(H|I) \), is called the prior probability; it represents our state of knowledge (or ignorance) about the truth of the hypothesis before we have analysed the current data.
  • This is modified by the experimental measurements through \( p(D|H,I) \), the likelihood function,
  • The denominator \( p(D|I) \) is called the evidence. It does not depend on the hypothesis and can be regarded as a normalization constant.
  • Together, these yield the posterior probability, \( p(H|D, I ) \), representing our state of knowledge about the truth of the hypothesis in the light of the data.
In a sense, Bayes’ theorem encapsulates the process of learning.