update week37, typos
This commit is contained in:
@@ -287,12 +287,12 @@ MathJax.Hub.Config({
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<p>
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Suppose we have a PDF \( p(x) \) from which we generate a series \( N \)
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of averages \( \langle x_i \rangle \). Each mean value \( \langle x_i \rangle \)
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of averages \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \). Each mean value \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \)
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is viewed as the average of a specific measurement, e.g., throwing
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dice 100 times and then taking the average value, or producing a certain
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amount of random numbers.
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For notational ease, we set \( \langle x_i \rangle=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows.
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For notational ease, we set \( \mathbb{E}[x_i]=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows. We do the same for \( \mathbb{E}[z]=z \).
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<p>
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If we compute the mean \( z \) of \( m \) such mean values \( x_i \)
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@@ -304,7 +304,7 @@ $$
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<p>
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The latter is true only if the average value is known exactly. This is obtained in the limit
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\( m\rightarrow \infty \) only. Because the mean and the variance are measured quantities we obtain
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the familiar expression in statistics
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the familiar expression in statistics (the so-called Bessel correction)
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$$
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\sigma_m\approx
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\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{m-1}}.
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@@ -289,8 +289,8 @@ MathJax.Hub.Config({
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We will discuss the bias-variance tradeoff in the context of
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continuous predictions such as regression. However, many of the
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intuitions and ideas discussed here also carry over to classification
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{L} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{L}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{D} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{D}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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<p>
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Let us assume that the true data is generated from a noisy model
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@@ -301,7 +301,7 @@ $$
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<ul>
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<li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( \log\{L[y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)]\} \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( [y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)] \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<li> Repeat the first three steps such that each sample plays the role of the test set once.</li>
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<li> Average the prediction performances of the test sets at each grid point of the penalty bias/parameter. It is an estimate of the prediction performance of the model corresponding to this value of the penalty parameter on novel data. It is defined as</li>
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</ul>
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@@ -906,12 +906,12 @@ Before we proceed however, we need to remind ourselves about a central theorem i
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<p>
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Suppose we have a PDF \( p(x) \) from which we generate a series \( N \)
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of averages \( \langle x_i \rangle \). Each mean value \( \langle x_i \rangle \)
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of averages \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \). Each mean value \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \)
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is viewed as the average of a specific measurement, e.g., throwing
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dice 100 times and then taking the average value, or producing a certain
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amount of random numbers.
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For notational ease, we set \( \langle x_i \rangle=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows.
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For notational ease, we set \( \mathbb{E}[x_i]=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows. We do the same for \( \mathbb{E}[z]=z \).
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<p>
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If we compute the mean \( z \) of \( m \) such mean values \( x_i \)
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@@ -1044,7 +1044,7 @@ $$
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<p>
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The latter is true only if the average value is known exactly. This is obtained in the limit
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\( m\rightarrow \infty \) only. Because the mean and the variance are measured quantities we obtain
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the familiar expression in statistics
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the familiar expression in statistics (the so-called Bessel correction)
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<p> <br>
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$$
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\sigma_m\approx
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@@ -1282,8 +1282,8 @@ plt.show()
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We will discuss the bias-variance tradeoff in the context of
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continuous predictions such as regression. However, many of the
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intuitions and ideas discussed here also carry over to classification
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{L} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{L}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{D} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{D}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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<p>
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Let us assume that the true data is generated from a noisy model
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@@ -1637,7 +1637,7 @@ $$
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<ul>
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<p><li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( \log\{L[y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)]\} \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<p><li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( [y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)] \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<p><li> Repeat the first three steps such that each sample plays the role of the test set once.</li>
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<p><li> Average the prediction performances of the test sets at each grid point of the penalty bias/parameter. It is an estimate of the prediction performance of the model corresponding to this value of the penalty parameter on novel data. It is defined as</li>
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</ul>
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@@ -949,12 +949,12 @@ Before we proceed however, we need to remind ourselves about a central theorem i
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<p>
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Suppose we have a PDF \( p(x) \) from which we generate a series \( N \)
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of averages \( \langle x_i \rangle \). Each mean value \( \langle x_i \rangle \)
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of averages \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \). Each mean value \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \)
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is viewed as the average of a specific measurement, e.g., throwing
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dice 100 times and then taking the average value, or producing a certain
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amount of random numbers.
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For notational ease, we set \( \langle x_i \rangle=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows.
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For notational ease, we set \( \mathbb{E}[x_i]=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows. We do the same for \( \mathbb{E}[z]=z \).
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<p>
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If we compute the mean \( z \) of \( m \) such mean values \( x_i \)
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@@ -1068,7 +1068,7 @@ $$
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<p>
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The latter is true only if the average value is known exactly. This is obtained in the limit
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\( m\rightarrow \infty \) only. Because the mean and the variance are measured quantities we obtain
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the familiar expression in statistics
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the familiar expression in statistics (the so-called Bessel correction)
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$$
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\sigma_m\approx
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\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{m-1}}.
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@@ -1299,8 +1299,8 @@ plt.show()
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We will discuss the bias-variance tradeoff in the context of
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continuous predictions such as regression. However, many of the
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intuitions and ideas discussed here also carry over to classification
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{L} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{L}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{D} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{D}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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<p>
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Let us assume that the true data is generated from a noisy model
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@@ -1638,7 +1638,7 @@ $$
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<ul>
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<li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( \log\{L[y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)]\} \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( [y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)] \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<li> Repeat the first three steps such that each sample plays the role of the test set once.</li>
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<li> Average the prediction performances of the test sets at each grid point of the penalty bias/parameter. It is an estimate of the prediction performance of the model corresponding to this value of the penalty parameter on novel data. It is defined as</li>
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</ul>
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@@ -954,12 +954,12 @@ Before we proceed however, we need to remind ourselves about a central theorem i
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<p>
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Suppose we have a PDF \( p(x) \) from which we generate a series \( N \)
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of averages \( \langle x_i \rangle \). Each mean value \( \langle x_i \rangle \)
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of averages \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \). Each mean value \( \mathbb{E}[x_i] \)
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is viewed as the average of a specific measurement, e.g., throwing
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dice 100 times and then taking the average value, or producing a certain
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amount of random numbers.
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For notational ease, we set \( \langle x_i \rangle=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows.
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For notational ease, we set \( \mathbb{E}[x_i]=x_i \) in the discussion
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which follows. We do the same for \( \mathbb{E}[z]=z \).
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<p>
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If we compute the mean \( z \) of \( m \) such mean values \( x_i \)
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@@ -1073,7 +1073,7 @@ $$
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<p>
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The latter is true only if the average value is known exactly. This is obtained in the limit
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\( m\rightarrow \infty \) only. Because the mean and the variance are measured quantities we obtain
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the familiar expression in statistics
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the familiar expression in statistics (the so-called Bessel correction)
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$$
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\sigma_m\approx
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\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{m-1}}.
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@@ -1304,8 +1304,8 @@ plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
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We will discuss the bias-variance tradeoff in the context of
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continuous predictions such as regression. However, many of the
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intuitions and ideas discussed here also carry over to classification
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{L} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{L}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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tasks. Consider a dataset \( \mathcal{D} \) consisting of the data
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\( \mathbf{X}_\mathcal{D}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\} \).
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<p>
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Let us assume that the true data is generated from a noisy model
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@@ -1643,7 +1643,7 @@ $$
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<ul>
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<li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( \log\{L[y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)]\} \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<li> Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by \( [y_i, \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast}; \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \boldsymbol{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)] \). Or, by the prediction error \( |y_i - \boldsymbol{X}_{i, \ast} \boldsymbol{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)| \), the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.</li>
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<li> Repeat the first three steps such that each sample plays the role of the test set once.</li>
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<li> Average the prediction performances of the test sets at each grid point of the penalty bias/parameter. It is an estimate of the prediction performance of the model corresponding to this value of the penalty parameter on novel data. It is defined as</li>
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</ul>
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Binary file not shown.
@@ -890,12 +890,12 @@
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"\n",
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"\n",
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"Suppose we have a PDF $p(x)$ from which we generate a series $N$\n",
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"of averages $\\langle x_i \\rangle$. Each mean value $\\langle x_i \\rangle$\n",
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"of averages $\\mathbb{E}[x_i]$. Each mean value $\\mathbb{E}[x_i]$\n",
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"is viewed as the average of a specific measurement, e.g., throwing \n",
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"dice 100 times and then taking the average value, or producing a certain\n",
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"amount of random numbers. \n",
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"For notational ease, we set $\\langle x_i \\rangle=x_i$ in the discussion\n",
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"which follows. \n",
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"For notational ease, we set $\\mathbb{E}[x_i]=x_i$ in the discussion\n",
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"which follows. We do the same for $\\mathbb{E}[z]=z$.\n",
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"\n",
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"If we compute the mean $z$ of $m$ such mean values $x_i$"
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]
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@@ -1085,7 +1085,7 @@
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"source": [
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"The latter is true only if the average value is known exactly. This is obtained in the limit\n",
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"$m\\rightarrow \\infty$ only. Because the mean and the variance are measured quantities we obtain \n",
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"the familiar expression in statistics"
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"the familiar expression in statistics (the so-called Bessel correction)"
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]
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},
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{
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@@ -1325,8 +1325,8 @@
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"We will discuss the bias-variance tradeoff in the context of\n",
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"continuous predictions such as regression. However, many of the\n",
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"intuitions and ideas discussed here also carry over to classification\n",
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"tasks. Consider a dataset $\\mathcal{L}$ consisting of the data\n",
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"$\\mathbf{X}_\\mathcal{L}=\\{(y_j, \\boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\\ldots n-1\\}$. \n",
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"tasks. Consider a dataset $\\mathcal{D}$ consisting of the data\n",
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"$\\mathbf{X}_\\mathcal{D}=\\{(y_j, \\boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\\ldots n-1\\}$. \n",
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"\n",
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"Let us assume that the true data is generated from a noisy model"
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]
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@@ -1757,7 +1757,7 @@
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"* Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by $\\log\\{L[y_i, \\boldsymbol{X}_{i, \\ast}; \\boldsymbol{\\beta}_{-i}(\\lambda), \\boldsymbol{\\sigma}_{-i}^2(\\lambda)]\\}$. Or, by the prediction error $|y_i - \\boldsymbol{X}_{i, \\ast} \\boldsymbol{\\beta}_{-i}(\\lambda)|$, the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.\n",
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"* Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by $[y_i, \\boldsymbol{X}_{i, \\ast}; \\boldsymbol{\\beta}_{-i}(\\lambda), \\boldsymbol{\\sigma}_{-i}^2(\\lambda)]$. Or, by the prediction error $|y_i - \\boldsymbol{X}_{i, \\ast} \\boldsymbol{\\beta}_{-i}(\\lambda)|$, the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.\n",
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"\n",
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"* Repeat the first three steps such that each sample plays the role of the test set once.\n",
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"\n",
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@@ -643,12 +643,12 @@ Before we proceed however, we need to remind ourselves about a central theorem i
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Suppose we have a PDF $p(x)$ from which we generate a series $N$
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of averages $\langle x_i \rangle$. Each mean value $\langle x_i \rangle$
|
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of averages $\mathbb{E}[x_i]$. Each mean value $\mathbb{E}[x_i]$
|
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is viewed as the average of a specific measurement, e.g., throwing
|
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dice 100 times and then taking the average value, or producing a certain
|
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amount of random numbers.
|
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For notational ease, we set $\langle x_i \rangle=x_i$ in the discussion
|
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which follows.
|
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For notational ease, we set $\mathbb{E}[x_i]=x_i$ in the discussion
|
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which follows. We do the same for $\mathbb{E}[z]=z$.
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If we compute the mean $z$ of $m$ such mean values $x_i$
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!bt
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@@ -759,7 +759,7 @@ standard deviation, given by
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The latter is true only if the average value is known exactly. This is obtained in the limit
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$m\rightarrow \infty$ only. Because the mean and the variance are measured quantities we obtain
|
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the familiar expression in statistics
|
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the familiar expression in statistics (the so-called Bessel correction)
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!bt
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\[
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\sigma_m\approx
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@@ -962,8 +962,8 @@ plt.show()
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We will discuss the bias-variance tradeoff in the context of
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continuous predictions such as regression. However, many of the
|
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intuitions and ideas discussed here also carry over to classification
|
||||
tasks. Consider a dataset $\mathcal{L}$ consisting of the data
|
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$\mathbf{X}_\mathcal{L}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\}$.
|
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tasks. Consider a dataset $\mathcal{D}$ consisting of the data
|
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$\mathbf{X}_\mathcal{D}=\{(y_j, \boldsymbol{x}_j), j=0\ldots n-1\}$.
|
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|
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Let us assume that the true data is generated from a noisy model
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@@ -1295,7 +1295,7 @@ cross-validation (LOOCV).
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\end{align*}
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!et
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* Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by $\log\{L[y_i, \bm{X}_{i, \ast}; \bm{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \bm{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)]\}$. Or, by the prediction error $|y_i - \bm{X}_{i, \ast} \bm{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)|$, the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.
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* Evaluate the prediction performance of these models on the test set by $[y_i, \bm{X}_{i, \ast}; \bm{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda), \bm{\sigma}_{-i}^2(\lambda)]$. Or, by the prediction error $|y_i - \bm{X}_{i, \ast} \bm{\beta}_{-i}(\lambda)|$, the relative error, the error squared or the R2 score function.
|
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* Repeat the first three steps such that each sample plays the role of the test set once.
|
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|
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|
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