feat(analyze): add paired truth/pred plots from giant predict
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Adds a `prediction` plot family to `giant analyze`, alongside the existing
rollout-vs-reference comparison, and extends `giant predict` to make it
possible:

- `giant predict --coord global` gains schema v3 (`--truth/--no-truth`,
  default on): writes true_* physical columns and true secondary lists
  alongside the predictions, so the output is fully paired.
- New `giant/analysis/prediction.py` builds one canonical true/pred frame
  (`paired_frame`) from either predict coord mode.
- `catalog.py` gains 35 `pred_*` specs: marginals, 2D truth-vs-pred scatter
  (new `heatmap2d` kind), residuals/relative-residuals/calibration profiles,
  KS/bias/RMSE scorecards, n_sec + secondary-species confusion matrices,
  direction-alignment and constraint-violation checks, and a correlation
  delta. Two new Reduced kinds (`paired_hist`, `heatmap2d`) get renderers.
  Every spec degrades to kind="unavailable" with no --prediction given.
- `condor.py`/`cli.py`: `--prediction`/`--prediction-label` on
  `analyze prep`/`submit`, threaded through RunMeta and every compute job.

Full test suite (1162 tests), ruff, and ty all pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PpxE9nij3ujg9XcuzvQ26q
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-07 11:19:19 +02:00
parent 2885c6518f
commit ac01966a1f
15 changed files with 2174 additions and 56 deletions
+52
View File
@@ -329,6 +329,58 @@ def test_render_one_of_each_kind(tmp_path: Path):
"log_color": True,
},
),
Reduced(
"ph1",
"prediction",
"paired_hist",
"Paired hist (single prediction)",
"x",
{"edges": [0, 1, 2, 3], "series": {"pred": {"pred": [1, 2, 3], "true": [2, 2, 2]}}, "log_y": False},
),
Reduced(
"ph2",
"prediction",
"paired_hist",
"Paired hist (two predictions)",
"x",
{
"edges": [0, 1, 2, 3],
"series": {"a": {"pred": [1, 2, 3], "true": [2, 2, 2]}, "b": {"pred": [3, 2, 1]}},
"log_y": False,
},
),
Reduced(
"hm2d",
"prediction",
"heatmap2d",
"Scatter (truth vs pred)",
"true x",
{
"x_edges": [0, 1, 2],
"y_edges": [0, 1, 2],
"series": {"pred": [[2, 0], [1, 3]]},
"ylabel": "predicted x",
"cbar_label": "count",
"log_color": True,
"diagonal": True,
},
),
Reduced(
"profile_noref",
"prediction",
"profile",
"Residual profile (no reference)",
"true x",
{"edges": [0, 1, 2], "series": {"pred": {"mean": [0.1, -0.1], "std": [0.2, 0.2]}}},
),
Reduced(
"bar_noref",
"prediction",
"bar",
"Constraint violations (no reference)",
"check",
{"labels": ["a", "b"], "series": {"pred": [0.01, 0.0]}, "ylabel": "rate"},
),
]
try:
pdfs = _try_render(reduced, tmp_path)