Files
FYS-STK4155/doc/pub/week48/ipynb/week48.ipynb
T

93 KiB

Week 48: Gradient boosting and summary of course

Morten Hjorth-Jensen, Department of Physics and Center for Computing in Science Education, University of Oslo, Norway

Date: Nov 25, 2024

Copyright 1999-2024, Morten Hjorth-Jensen. Released under CC Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 license

Overview of week 48

Lecture Monday, November 25

Plans for the lecture Monday 25 November, with video suggestions etc.

  1. Boosting and gradient boosting and ensemble models

  2. Summary of course

  3. Readings and Videos:

a. These lecture notes at https://github.com/CompPhysics/MachineLearning/blob/master/doc/pub/week48/ipynb/week48.ipynb

b. See also lecture notes from week 47 at https://github.com/CompPhysics/MachineLearning/blob/master/doc/pub/week47/ipynb/week47.ipynb. The lecture on Monday starts with a repetition on AdaBoost before we move over to gradient boosting with examples

c. Video of lecture at https://youtu.be/iTaRdAPQnDA

d. Whiteboard notes at https://github.com/CompPhysics/MachineLearning/blob/master/doc/HandWrittenNotes/2024/NotesNovember25.pdf

e. Video on Decision trees https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmajweUFKvM&ab_channel=Simplilearn

f. Video on boosting methods https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPqtzj5VZus&ab_channel=H2O.ai

g. Video on AdaBoost https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsK-xG1cLYA

h. Video on Gradient boost, part 1, parts 2-4 follow thereafter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CC4N4z3GJc

i. Decision Trees: Rashcka et al chapter 3 pages 86-98, and chapter 7 on Ensemble methods, Voting and Bagging and Gradient Boosting. See also lecture from STK-IN4300, lecture 7 at https://www.uio.no/studier/emner/matnat/math/STK-IN4300/h20/slides/lecture_7.pdf.

Lab sessions

Lab sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

  • Work and Discussion of project 3

  • Last weekly exercise

  • Lab sessions at usual times.

  • For the week of December 2-6, lab sessions start at 10am and end at 4pm, room FØ434, Tuesday and Wednesday

Random Forest Algorithm, reminder from last week

The algorithm described here can be applied to both classification and regression problems.

We will grow of forest of say B trees.

  • For b=1:B

a. Draw a bootstrap sample from the training data organized in our \boldsymbol{X} matrix.

b. We grow then a random forest tree T_b based on the bootstrapped data by repeating the steps outlined till we reach the maximum node size is reached

  1. we select m \le p variables at random from the p predictors/features

  2. pick the best split point among the m features using for example the CART algorithm and create a new node

  3. split the node into daughter nodes

Finally we output then the ensemble of trees \{T_b\}_1^{B} and make predictions for either a regression type of problem or a classification type of problem.

Random Forests Compared with other Methods on the Cancer Data

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import  train_test_split 
from sklearn.datasets import load_breast_cancer
from sklearn.svm import SVC
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
from sklearn.ensemble import BaggingClassifier

# Load the data
cancer = load_breast_cancer()

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(cancer.data,cancer.target,random_state=0)
print(X_train.shape)
print(X_test.shape)
#define methods
# Logistic Regression
logreg = LogisticRegression(solver='lbfgs')
# Support vector machine
svm = SVC(gamma='auto', C=100)
# Decision Trees
deep_tree_clf = DecisionTreeClassifier(max_depth=None)
#Scale the data
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
scaler = StandardScaler()
scaler.fit(X_train)
X_train_scaled = scaler.transform(X_train)
X_test_scaled = scaler.transform(X_test)
# Logistic Regression
logreg.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
print("Test set accuracy Logistic Regression with scaled data: {:.2f}".format(logreg.score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
# Support Vector Machine
svm.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
print("Test set accuracy SVM with scaled data: {:.2f}".format(logreg.score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
# Decision Trees
deep_tree_clf.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
print("Test set accuracy with Decision Trees and scaled data: {:.2f}".format(deep_tree_clf.score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))


from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_validate
# Data set not specificied
#Instantiate the model with 500 trees and entropy as splitting criteria
Random_Forest_model = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=500,criterion="entropy")
Random_Forest_model.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
#Cross validation
accuracy = cross_validate(Random_Forest_model,X_test_scaled,y_test,cv=10)['test_score']
print(accuracy)
print("Test set accuracy with Random Forests and scaled data: {:.2f}".format(Random_Forest_model.score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))


import scikitplot as skplt
y_pred = Random_Forest_model.predict(X_test_scaled)
skplt.metrics.plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize=True)
plt.show()
y_probas = Random_Forest_model.predict_proba(X_test_scaled)
skplt.metrics.plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()
skplt.metrics.plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()

Recall that the cumulative gains curve shows the percentage of the overall number of cases in a given category gained by targeting a percentage of the total number of cases.

Similarly, the receiver operating characteristic curve, or ROC curve, displays the diagnostic ability of a binary classifier system as its discrimination threshold is varied. It plots the true positive rate against the false positive rate.

Compare Bagging on Trees with Random Forests

In [2]:
bag_clf = BaggingClassifier(
    DecisionTreeClassifier(splitter="random", max_leaf_nodes=16, random_state=42),
    n_estimators=500, max_samples=1.0, bootstrap=True, n_jobs=-1, random_state=42)
In [3]:
bag_clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pred = bag_clf.predict(X_test)
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
rnd_clf = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=500, max_leaf_nodes=16, n_jobs=-1, random_state=42)
rnd_clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pred_rf = rnd_clf.predict(X_test)
np.sum(y_pred == y_pred_rf) / len(y_pred)

Boosting, a Bird's Eye View

The basic idea is to combine weak classifiers in order to create a good classifier. With a weak classifier we often intend a classifier which produces results which are only slightly better than we would get by random guesses.

This is done by applying in an iterative way a weak (or a standard classifier like decision trees) to modify the data. In each iteration we emphasize those observations which are misclassified by weighting them with a factor.

What is boosting? Additive Modelling/Iterative Fitting

Boosting is a way of fitting an additive expansion in a set of elementary basis functions like for example some simple polynomials. Assume for example that we have a function


f_M(x) = \sum_{i=1}^M \beta_m b(x;\gamma_m),

where \beta_m are the expansion parameters to be determined in a minimization process and b(x;\gamma_m) are some simple functions of the multivariable parameter x which is characterized by the parameters \gamma_m.

As an example, consider the Sigmoid function we used in logistic regression. In that case, we can translate the function b(x;\gamma_m) into the Sigmoid function


\sigma(t) = \frac{1}{1+\exp{(-t)}},

where t=\gamma_0+\gamma_1 x and the parameters \gamma_0 and \gamma_1 were determined by the Logistic Regression fitting algorithm.

As another example, consider the cost function we defined for linear regression


C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f(x_i))^2.

In this case the function f(x) was replaced by the design matrix \boldsymbol{X} and the unknown linear regression parameters \boldsymbol{\beta}, that is \boldsymbol{f}=\boldsymbol{X}\boldsymbol{\beta}. In linear regression we can simply invert a matrix and obtain the parameters \beta by


\boldsymbol{\beta}=\left(\boldsymbol{X}^T\boldsymbol{X}\right)^{-1}\boldsymbol{X}^T\boldsymbol{y}.

In iterative fitting or additive modeling, we minimize the cost function with respect to the parameters \beta_m and \gamma_m.

Iterative Fitting, Regression and Squared-error Cost Function

The way we proceed is as follows (here we specialize to the squared-error cost function)

  1. Establish a cost function, here {\cal C}(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_M(x_i))^2 with f_M(x) = \sum_{i=1}^M \beta_m b(x;\gamma_m).

  2. Initialize with a guess f_0(x). It could be one or even zero or some random numbers.

  3. For m=1:M

a. minimize \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_{m-1}(x_i)-\beta b(x;\gamma))^2 wrt \gamma and \beta

b. This gives the optimal values \beta_m and \gamma_m

c. Determine then the new values f_m(x)=f_{m-1}(x) +\beta_m b(x;\gamma_m)

We could use any of the algorithms we have discussed till now. If we use trees, \gamma parameterizes the split variables and split points at the internal nodes, and the predictions at the terminal nodes.

Squared-Error Example and Iterative Fitting

To better understand what happens, let us develop the steps for the iterative fitting using the above squared error function.

For simplicity we assume also that our functions b(x;\gamma)=1+\gamma x.

This means that for every iteration m, we need to optimize


(\beta_m,\gamma_m) = \mathrm{argmin}_{\beta,\lambda}\hspace{0.1cm} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_{m-1}(x_i)-\beta b(x;\gamma))^2=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_{m-1}(x_i)-\beta(1+\gamma x_i))^2.

We start our iteration by simply setting f_0(x)=0. Taking the derivatives with respect to \beta and \gamma we obtain


\frac{\partial {\cal C}}{\partial \beta} = -2\sum_{i}(1+\gamma x_i)(y_i-\beta(1+\gamma x_i))=0,

and


\frac{\partial {\cal C}}{\partial \gamma} =-2\sum_{i}\beta x_i(y_i-\beta(1+\gamma x_i))=0.

We can then rewrite these equations as (defining \boldsymbol{w}=\boldsymbol{e}+\gamma \boldsymbol{x}) with \boldsymbol{e} being the unit vector)


\gamma \boldsymbol{w}^T(\boldsymbol{y}-\beta\gamma \boldsymbol{w})=0,

which gives us \beta = \boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{y}/(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{w}). Similarly we have


\beta\gamma \boldsymbol{x}^T(\boldsymbol{y}-\beta(1+\gamma \boldsymbol{x}))=0,

which leads to \gamma =(\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{y}-\beta\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{e})/(\beta\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{x}). Inserting for \beta gives us an equation for \gamma. This is a non-linear equation in the unknown \gamma and has to be solved numerically.

The solution to these two equations gives us in turn \beta_1 and \gamma_1 leading to the new expression for f_1(x) as f_1(x) = \beta_1(1+\gamma_1x). Doing this M times results in our final estimate for the function f.

Iterative Fitting, Classification and AdaBoost

Let us consider a binary classification problem with two outcomes y_i \in \{-1,1\} and i=0,1,2,\dots,n-1 as our set of observations. We define a classification function G(x) which produces a prediction taking one or the other of the two values \{-1,1\}.

The error rate of the training sample is then


\mathrm{\overline{err}}=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} I(y_i\ne G(x_i)).

The iterative procedure starts with defining a weak classifier whose error rate is barely better than random guessing. The iterative procedure in boosting is to sequentially apply a weak classification algorithm to repeatedly modified versions of the data producing a sequence of weak classifiers G_m(x).

Here we will express our function f(x) in terms of G(x). That is


f_M(x) = \sum_{i=1}^M \beta_m b(x;\gamma_m),

will be a function of


G_M(x) = \mathrm{sign} \sum_{i=1}^M \alpha_m G_m(x).

Adaptive Boosting, AdaBoost

In our iterative procedure we define thus


f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x)+\beta_mG_m(x).

The simplest possible cost function which leads (also simple from a computational point of view) to the AdaBoost algorithm is the exponential cost/loss function defined as


C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}\exp{(-y_i(f_{m-1}(x_i)+\beta G(x_i))}.

We optimize \beta and G for each value of m=1:M as we did in the regression case. This is normally done in two steps. Let us however first rewrite the cost function as


C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^{m}\exp{(-y_i\beta G(x_i))},

where we have defined w_i^m= \exp{(-y_if_{m-1}(x_i))}.

Building up AdaBoost

First, for any \beta > 0, we optimize G by setting


G_m(x) = \mathrm{sign} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} w_i^m I(y_i \ne G_(x_i)),

which is the classifier that minimizes the weighted error rate in predicting y.

We can do this by rewriting


\exp{-(\beta)}\sum_{y_i=G(x_i)}w_i^m+\exp{(\beta)}\sum_{y_i\ne G(x_i)}w_i^m,

which can be rewritten as


(\exp{(\beta)}-\exp{-(\beta)})\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^mI(y_i\ne G(x_i))+\exp{(-\beta)}\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^m=0,

which leads to


\beta_m = \frac{1}{2}\log{\frac{1-\mathrm{\overline{err}}}{\mathrm{\overline{err}}}},

where we have redefined the error as


\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m=\frac{1}{n}\frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^mI(y_i\ne G(x_i)}{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^m},

which leads to an update of


f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x) +\beta_m G_m(x).

This leads to the new weights


w_i^{m+1} = w_i^m \exp{(-y_i\beta_m G_m(x_i))}

Adaptive boosting: AdaBoost, Basic Algorithm

The algorithm here is rather straightforward. Assume that our weak classifier is a decision tree and we consider a binary set of outputs with y_i \in \{-1,1\} and i=0,1,2,\dots,n-1 as our set of observations. Our design matrix is given in terms of the feature/predictor vectors \boldsymbol{X}=[\boldsymbol{x}_0\boldsymbol{x}_1\dots\boldsymbol{x}_{p-1}]. Finally, we define also a classifier determined by our data via a function G(x). This function tells us how well we are able to classify our outputs/targets \boldsymbol{y}.

We have already defined the misclassification error \mathrm{err} as


\mathrm{err}=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}I(y_i\ne G(x_i)),

where the function I() is one if we misclassify and zero if we classify correctly.

Basic Steps of AdaBoost

With the above definitions we are now ready to set up the algorithm for AdaBoost. The basic idea is to set up weights which will be used to scale the correctly classified and the misclassified cases.

  1. We start by initializing all weights to w_i = 1/n, with i=0,1,2,\dots n-1. It is easy to see that we must have \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i = 1.

  2. We rewrite the misclassification error as


\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m=\frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^m I(y_i\ne G(x_i))}{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i},
  1. Then we start looping over all attempts at classifying, namely we start an iterative process for m=1:M, where M is the final number of classifications. Our given classifier could for example be a plain decision tree.

a. Fit then a given classifier to the training set using the weights w_i.

b. Compute then \mathrm{err} and figure out which events are classified properly and which are classified wrongly.

c. Define a quantity \alpha_{m} = \log{(1-\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m)/\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m}

d. Set the new weights to w_i = w_i\times \exp{(\alpha_m I(y_i\ne G(x_i)}.

  1. Compute the new classifier G(x)= \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}\alpha_m I(y_i\ne G(x_i).

For the iterations with m \le 2 the weights are modified individually at each steps. The observations which were misclassified at iteration m-1 have a weight which is larger than those which were classified properly. As this proceeds, the observations which were difficult to classifiy correctly are given a larger influence. Each new classification step m is then forced to concentrate on those observations that are missed in the previous iterations.

AdaBoost Examples

Using Scikit-Learn it is easy to apply the adaptive boosting algorithm, as done here.

In [4]:
from sklearn.ensemble import AdaBoostClassifier

ada_clf = AdaBoostClassifier(
    DecisionTreeClassifier(max_depth=2), n_estimators=200,
    algorithm="SAMME.R", learning_rate=0.01, random_state=42)
ada_clf.fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pred = ada_clf.predict(X_test)
skplt.metrics.plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize=True)
plt.show()
y_probas = ada_clf.predict_proba(X_test)
skplt.metrics.plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()
skplt.metrics.plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()

Making an ADAboost code yourself

In [5]:
import numpy as np

class DecisionStump:
    def fit(self, X, y, weights):
        m, n = X.shape
        self.alpha = 0
        self.threshold = None
        self.polarity = 1

        min_error = float('inf')

        for feature in range(n):
            feature_values = np.unique(X[:, feature])

            for threshold in feature_values:
                for polarity in [1, -1]:
                    predictions = np.ones(m)
                    predictions[X[:, feature] < threshold] = -1
                    predictions *= polarity

                    error = sum(weights[predictions != y])

                    if error < min_error:
                        min_error = error
                        self.alpha = 0.5 * np.log((1 - error) / (error + 1e-10))
                        self.threshold = threshold
                        self.feature_index = feature
                        self.polarity = polarity

    def predict(self, X):
        m = X.shape[0]
        predictions = np.ones(m)
        if self.polarity == 1:
            predictions[X[:, self.feature_index] < self.threshold] = -1
        else:
            predictions[X[:, self.feature_index] >= self.threshold] = -1
        return predictions

class AdaBoost:
    def fit(self, X, y, n_estimators):
        m = X.shape[0]
        self.alphas = []
        self.models = []

        weights = np.ones(m) / m

        for _ in range(n_estimators):
            stump = DecisionStump()
            stump.fit(X, y, weights)
            predictions = stump.predict(X)

            error = sum(weights[predictions != y])
            if error == 0:
                break

            self.models.append(stump)
            self.alphas.append(stump.alpha)

            weights *= np.exp(-stump.alpha * y * predictions)
            weights /= np.sum(weights)

    def predict(self, X):
        final_predictions = np.zeros(X.shape[0])
        for alpha, model in zip(self.alphas, self.models):
            final_predictions += alpha * model.predict(X)
        return np.sign(final_predictions)

# Example dataset (X, y)
X = np.array([[1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10]])
y = np.array([-1, -1, -1, -1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1])  # Labels must be -1 or 1

# Train AdaBoost
ada = AdaBoost()
ada.fit(X, y, n_estimators=10)

# Predictions
predictions = ada.predict(X)
print("Predictions:", predictions)

Gradient boosting: Basics with Steepest Descent/Functional Gradient Descent

Gradient boosting is again a similar technique to Adaptive boosting, it combines so-called weak classifiers or regressors into a strong method via a series of iterations.

In order to understand the method, let us illustrate its basics by bringing back the essential steps in linear regression, where our cost function was the least squares function.

The Squared-Error again! Steepest Descent

We start again with our cost function {\cal C}(\boldsymbol{y}m\boldsymbol{f})=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}{\cal L}(y_i, f(x_i)) where we want to minimize This means that for every iteration, we need to optimize


(\hat{\boldsymbol{f}}) = \mathrm{argmin}_{\boldsymbol{f}}\hspace{0.1cm} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f(x_i))^2.

We define a real function h_m(x) that defines our final function f_M(x) as


f_M(x) = \sum_{m=0}^M h_m(x).

In the steepest decent approach we approximate h_m(x) = -\rho_m g_m(x), where \rho_m is a scalar and g_m(x) the gradient defined as


g_m(x_i) = \left[ \frac{\partial {\cal L}(y_i, f(x_i))}{\partial f(x_i)}\right]_{f(x_i)=f_{m-1}(x_i)}.

With the new gradient we can update f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x) -\rho_m g_m(x). Using the above squared-error function we see that the gradient is g_m(x_i) = -2(y_i-f(x_i)).

Choosing f_0(x)=0 we obtain g_m(x) = -2y_i and inserting this into the minimization problem for the cost function we have


(\rho_1) = \mathrm{argmin}_{\rho}\hspace{0.1cm} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i+2\rho y_i)^2.

Steepest Descent Example

Optimizing with respect to \rho we obtain (taking the derivative) that \rho_1 = -1/2. We have then that


f_1(x) = f_{0}(x) -\rho_1 g_1(x)=-y_i.

We can then proceed and compute


g_2(x_i) = \left[ \frac{\partial {\cal L}(y_i, f(x_i))}{\partial f(x_i)}\right]_{f(x_i)=f_{1}(x_i)=y_i}=-4y_i,

and find a new value for \rho_2=-1/2 and continue till we have reached m=M. We can modify the steepest descent method, or steepest boosting, by introducing what is called gradient boosting.

Gradient Boosting, algorithm

Steepest descent is however not much used, since it only optimizes f at a fixed set of n points, so we do not learn a function that can generalize. However, we can modify the algorithm by fitting a weak learner to approximate the negative gradient signal.

Suppose we have a cost function C(f)=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}L(y_i, f(x_i)) where y_i is our target and f(x_i) the function which is meant to model y_i. The above cost function could be our standard squared-error function


C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f})=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f(x_i))^2.

The way we proceed in an iterative fashion is to

  1. Initialize our estimate f_0(x).

  2. For m=1:M, we

a. compute the negative gradient vector \boldsymbol{u}_m = -\partial C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f})/\partial \boldsymbol{f}(x) at f(x) = f_{m-1}(x);

b. fit the so-called base-learner to the negative gradient h_m(u_m,x);

c. update the estimate f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x)+h_m(u_m,x);

  1. The final estimate is then f_M(x) = \sum_{m=1}^M h_m(u_m,x).

Gradient Boosting, Examples of Regression

In [6]:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingRegressor
import scikitplot as skplt
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error

n = 100
maxdegree = 6

# Make data set.
x = np.linspace(-3, 3, n).reshape(-1, 1)
y = np.exp(-x**2) + 1.5 * np.exp(-(x-2)**2)+ np.random.normal(0, 0.1, x.shape)

error = np.zeros(maxdegree)
bias = np.zeros(maxdegree)
variance = np.zeros(maxdegree)
polydegree = np.zeros(maxdegree)
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(x, y, test_size=0.2)

for degree in range(1,maxdegree):
    model = GradientBoostingRegressor(max_depth=degree, n_estimators=100, learning_rate=1.0)  
    model.fit(X_train,y_train)
    y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
    polydegree[degree] = degree
    error[degree] = np.mean( np.mean((y_test - y_pred)**2) )
    bias[degree] = np.mean( (y_test - np.mean(y_pred))**2 )
    variance[degree] = np.mean( np.var(y_pred) )
    print('Max depth:', degree)
    print('Error:', error[degree])
    print('Bias^2:', bias[degree])
    print('Var:', variance[degree])
    print('{} >= {} + {} = {}'.format(error[degree], bias[degree], variance[degree], bias[degree]+variance[degree]))

plt.xlim(1,maxdegree-1)
plt.plot(polydegree, error, label='Error')
plt.plot(polydegree, bias, label='bias')
plt.plot(polydegree, variance, label='Variance')
plt.legend()
plt.show()

Gradient Boosting, Classification Example

In [7]:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import  train_test_split 
from sklearn.datasets import load_breast_cancer
import scikitplot as skplt
from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_validate

# Load the data
cancer = load_breast_cancer()

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(cancer.data,cancer.target,random_state=0)
print(X_train.shape)
print(X_test.shape)
#now scale the data
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
scaler = StandardScaler()
scaler.fit(X_train)
X_train_scaled = scaler.transform(X_train)
X_test_scaled = scaler.transform(X_test)

gd_clf = GradientBoostingClassifier(max_depth=3, n_estimators=100, learning_rate=1.0)  
gd_clf.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
#Cross validation
accuracy = cross_validate(gd_clf,X_test_scaled,y_test,cv=10)['test_score']
print(accuracy)
print("Test set accuracy with Gradient boosting and scaled data: {:.2f}".format(gd_clf.score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))

import scikitplot as skplt
y_pred = gd_clf.predict(X_test_scaled)
skplt.metrics.plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize=True)
plt.show()
y_probas = gd_clf.predict_proba(X_test_scaled)
skplt.metrics.plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()
skplt.metrics.plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()

XGBoost: Extreme Gradient Boosting

XGBoost or Extreme Gradient Boosting, is an optimized distributed gradient boosting library designed to be highly efficient, flexible and portable. It implements machine learning algorithms under the Gradient Boosting framework. XGBoost provides a parallel tree boosting that solve many data science problems in a fast and accurate way. See the article by Chen and Guestrin.

The authors design and build a highly scalable end-to-end tree boosting system. It has a theoretically justified weighted quantile sketch for efficient proposal calculation. It introduces a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for parallel tree learning and an effective cache-aware block structure for out-of-core tree learning.

It is now the algorithm which wins essentially all ML competitions!!!

Xgboost on the Cancer Data

As you will see from the confusion matrix below, XGBoots does an excellent job on the Wisconsin cancer data and outperforms essentially all agorithms we have discussed till now.

In [8]:

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import  train_test_split 
from sklearn.datasets import load_breast_cancer
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_validate
import scikitplot as skplt
import xgboost as xgb
# Load the data
cancer = load_breast_cancer()

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(cancer.data,cancer.target,random_state=0)
print(X_train.shape)
print(X_test.shape)
#now scale the data
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
scaler = StandardScaler()
scaler.fit(X_train)
X_train_scaled = scaler.transform(X_train)
X_test_scaled = scaler.transform(X_test)

xg_clf = xgb.XGBClassifier()
xg_clf.fit(X_train_scaled,y_train)

y_test = xg_clf.predict(X_test_scaled)

print("Test set accuracy with Gradient Boosting and scaled data: {:.2f}".format(xg_clf.score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))

import scikitplot as skplt
y_pred = xg_clf.predict(X_test_scaled)
skplt.metrics.plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize=True)
plt.show()
y_probas = xg_clf.predict_proba(X_test_scaled)
skplt.metrics.plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()
skplt.metrics.plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
plt.show()


xgb.plot_tree(xg_clf,num_trees=0)
plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = [50, 10]
plt.show()

xgb.plot_importance(xg_clf)
plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = [5, 5]
plt.show()

Gradient boosting, making our own code for a regression case

In [9]:
import numpy as np
class DecisionTreeRegressor:
    def __init__(self, max_depth=3):
        self.max_depth = max_depth
        self.tree = None
    def fit(self, X, y):
        self.tree = self._grow_tree(X, y)
    def _grow_tree(self, X, y, depth=0):
        n_samples, n_features = X.shape
        if depth < self.max_depth:
            best_feature, best_threshold = self._best_split(X, y)
            if best_feature is not None:
                left_indices = X[:, best_feature] < best_threshold
                right_indices = X[:, best_feature] >= best_threshold
                left_child = self._grow_tree(X[left_indices], y[left_indices], depth + 1)
                right_child = self._grow_tree(X[right_indices], y[right_indices], depth + 1)
                return (best_feature, best_threshold, left_child, right_child)
        return np.mean(y)
    def _best_split(self, X, y):
        best_mse = float('inf')
        best_feature, best_threshold = None, None
        n_samples, n_features = X.shape
        
        for feature in range(n_features):
            thresholds = np.unique(X[:, feature])
            for threshold in thresholds:
                left_indices = X[:, feature] < threshold
                right_indices = X[:, feature] >= threshold
                if len(y[left_indices]) > 0 and len(y[right_indices]) > 0:
                    left_mse = np.mean((y[left_indices] - np.mean(y[left_indices])) ** 2)
                    right_mse = np.mean((y[right_indices] - np.mean(y[right_indices])) ** 2)
                    mse = (len(y[left_indices]) * left_mse + len(y[right_indices]) * right_mse) / n_samples
                    
                    if mse < best_mse:
                        best_mse = mse
                        best_feature = feature
                        best_threshold = threshold
        return best_feature, best_threshold
    def predict(self, X):
        return np.array([self._predict_sample(sample, self.tree) for sample in X])
    def _predict_sample(self, sample, node):
        if isinstance(node, tuple):
            feature, threshold, left_child, right_child = node
            if sample[feature] < threshold:
                return self._predict_sample(sample, left_child)
            else:
                return self._predict_sample(sample, right_child)
        return node
class GradientBoostingRegressor:
    def __init__(self, n_estimators=100, learning_rate=0.1, max_depth=3):
        self.n_estimators = n_estimators
        self.learning_rate = learning_rate
        self.max_depth = max_depth
        self.models = []
    def fit(self, X, y):
        y_pred = np.zeros(y.shape)
        for _ in range(self.n_estimators):
            residuals = y - y_pred
            model = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=self.max_depth)
            model.fit(X, residuals)
            y_pred += self.learning_rate * model.predict(X)
            self.models.append(model)
    def predict(self, X):
        y_pred = np.zeros(X.shape[0])
        for model in self.models:
            y_pred += self.learning_rate * model.predict(X)
        return y_pred
# Example usage
if __name__ == "__main__":
    # Sample data
    X = np.array([[1], [2], [3], [4], [5]])
    y = np.array([1.5, 1.7, 3.5, 3.7, 5.0])
    model = GradientBoostingRegressor(n_estimators=100, learning_rate=0.1, max_depth=2)
    model.fit(X, y)
    predictions = model.predict(X)
    print("Predictions:", predictions)

Summary of course

What? Me worry? No final exam in this course!

Figure 1:

Topics we have covered this year

The course has two central parts

  1. Statistical analysis and optimization of data

  2. Machine learning

Warning:
Output truncated. This notebook contains too many cells to display efficiently.