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<a class="navbar-brand" href="Regression-bs.html">Data Analysis and Machine Learning: Linear Regression and more Advanced Regression Analysis</a>
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<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs001.html#___sec0" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Why Linear Regression (aka Ordinary Least Squares and family)</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs002.html#___sec1" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Regression analysis, overarching aims</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs003.html#___sec2" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Regression analysis, overarching aims II</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs004.html#___sec3" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Examples</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs005.html#___sec4" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>General linear models</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs006.html#___sec5" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Rewriting the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs007.html#___sec6" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Rewriting the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem, more details</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs008.html#___sec7" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Generalizing the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs009.html#___sec8" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Generalizing the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs010.html#___sec9" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs011.html#___sec10" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Our model for the nuclear binding energies</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs012.html#___sec11" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Optimizing our parameters, more details</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs013.html#___sec12" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Interpretations and optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs014.html#___sec13" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Interpretations and optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs015.html#___sec14" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Some useful matrix and vector expressions</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs016.html#___sec15" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Interpretations and optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs017.html#___sec16" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Own code for Ordinary Least Squares</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs018.html#___sec17" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Adding error analysis and training set up</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs019.html#___sec18" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs020.html#___sec19" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs021.html#___sec20" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs022.html#___sec21" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs023.html#___sec22" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs024.html#___sec23" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs025.html#___sec24" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Fitting an Equation of State for Dense Nuclear Matter</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs026.html#___sec25" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The code</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs027.html#___sec26" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Splitting our Data in Training and Test data</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs028.html#___sec27" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The singular value decomposition</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs029.html#___sec28" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The Ising model</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs030.html#___sec29" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Reformulating the problem to suit regression</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs031.html#___sec30" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Linear regression</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs032.html#___sec31" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Singular Value decomposition</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs033.html#___sec32" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Linear Regression Problems</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs034.html#___sec33" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Fixing the singularity</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs035.html#___sec34" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Basic math of the SVD</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs036.html#___sec35" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The SVD, a Fantastic Algorithm</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs037.html#___sec36" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Another Example</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs038.html#___sec37" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Economy-size SVD</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs039.html#___sec38" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Mathematical Properties</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs040.html#___sec39" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Ridge and LASSO Regression</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs041.html#___sec40" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>More on Ridge Regression</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs042.html#___sec41" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Interpreting the Ridge results</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs043.html#___sec42" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>More interpretations</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs044.html#___sec43" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Where are we going?</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs045.html#___sec44" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs046.html#___sec45" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling approaches can be computationally expensive</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs047.html#___sec46" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Why resampling methods ?</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs048.html#___sec47" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistical analysis</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs049.html#___sec48" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs050.html#___sec49" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, moments</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs051.html#___sec50" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, central moments</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs052.html#___sec51" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, covariance</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs053.html#___sec52" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, more covariance</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs054.html#___sec53" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, independent variables</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs055.html#___sec54" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, more variance</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs056.html#___sec55" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics and stochastic processes</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs057.html#___sec56" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics and sample variables</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs058.html#___sec57" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, sample variance and covariance</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs059.html#___sec58" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, law of large numbers</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs060.html#___sec59" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, more on sample error</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs061.html#___sec60" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs062.html#___sec61" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, central limit theorem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs063.html#___sec62" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, more technicalities</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs064.html#___sec63" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs065.html#___sec64" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics and sample variance</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs066.html#___sec65" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, uncorrelated results</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs067.html#___sec66" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, computations</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs068.html#___sec67" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, more on computations of errors</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs069.html#___sec68" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, wrapping up 1</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs070.html#___sec69" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, final expression</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs071.html#___sec70" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Statistics, effective number of correlations</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs072.html#___sec71" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Linking the regression analysis with a statistical interpretation</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs073.html#___sec72" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Assumptions made</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs074.html#___sec73" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Expectation value and variance</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs075.html#___sec74" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Expectation value and variance for \( \boldsymbol{\beta} \)</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs076.html#___sec75" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Cross-validation</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs077.html#___sec76" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Computationally expensive</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs078.html#___sec77" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Various steps in cross-validation</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs079.html#___sec78" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>How to set up the cross-validation for Ridge and/or Lasso</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs080.html#___sec79" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods: Jackknife and Bootstrap</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs081.html#___sec80" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods: Jackknife</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs082.html#___sec81" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Jackknife code example</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs083.html#___sec82" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods: Bootstrap</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs084.html#___sec83" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods: Bootstrap background</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs085.html#___sec84" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods: More Bootstrap background</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs086.html#___sec85" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods: Bootstrap approach</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs087.html#___sec86" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Resampling methods: Bootstrap steps</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs088.html#___sec87" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Code example for the Bootstrap method</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs089.html#___sec88" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Code Example for Cross-validation and \( k \)-fold Cross-validation</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs090.html#___sec89" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The bias-variance tradeoff</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs091.html#___sec90" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Example code for Bias-Variance tradeoff</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs092.html#___sec91" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Understanding what happens</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs093.html#___sec92" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Summing up</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs094.html#___sec93" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Another Example rom Scikit-Learn's Repository</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs095.html#___sec94" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The one-dimensional Ising model</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs096.html#___sec95" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Ridge regression</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs097.html#___sec96" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>LASSO regression</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs098.html#___sec97" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Performance as function of the regularization parameter</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="#___sec98" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Finding the optimal value of \( \lambda \)</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._Regression-bs100.html#___sec99" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Further Exercises</b></a></li>
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<h2 id="___sec98" class="anchor">Finding the optimal value of \( \lambda \) </h2>
<p>
To determine which value of \( \lambda \) is best we plot the accuracy of
the models when predicting the training and the testing set. We expect
the accuracy of the training set to be quite good, but if the accuracy
of the testing set is much lower this tells us that we might be
subject to an overfit model. The ideal scenario is an accuracy on the
testing set that is close to the accuracy of the training set.
<p>
<!-- code=python (!bc pycod) typeset with pygments style "default" -->
<div class="highlight" style="background: #f8f8f8"><pre style="line-height: 125%"><span></span>fig <span style="color: #666666">=</span> plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>figure(figsize<span style="color: #666666">=</span>(<span style="color: #666666">20</span>, <span style="color: #666666">14</span>))
colors <span style="color: #666666">=</span> {
<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;ols_sk&quot;</span>: <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;r&quot;</span>,
<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;ridge_sk&quot;</span>: <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;y&quot;</span>,
<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;lasso_sk&quot;</span>: <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;c&quot;</span>
}
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">for</span> key <span style="color: #AA22FF; font-weight: bold">in</span> train_errors:
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>semilogx(
lambdas,
train_errors[key],
colors[key],
label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Train {0}&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(key),
linewidth<span style="color: #666666">=4.0</span>
)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">for</span> key <span style="color: #AA22FF; font-weight: bold">in</span> test_errors:
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>semilogx(
lambdas,
test_errors[key],
colors[key] <span style="color: #666666">+</span> <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;--&quot;</span>,
label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Test {0}&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(key),
linewidth<span style="color: #666666">=4.0</span>
)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>legend(loc<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;best&quot;</span>, fontsize<span style="color: #666666">=18</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>xlabel(<span style="color: #BA2121">r&quot;$\lambda$&quot;</span>, fontsize<span style="color: #666666">=18</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>ylabel(<span style="color: #BA2121">r&quot;$R^2$&quot;</span>, fontsize<span style="color: #666666">=18</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>tick_params(labelsize<span style="color: #666666">=18</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
</pre></div>
<p>
From the above figure we can see that LASSO with \( \lambda = 10^{-2} \)
achieves a very good accuracy on the test set. This by far surpasses the
other models for all values of \( \lambda \).
<p>
<p>
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