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Morten Hjorth-Jensen 7ef83359c2 updating week 34
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<a class="navbar-brand" href="week34-bs.html">Week 35: Introduction to the course, Logistics and Practicalities</a>
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<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs001.html#overview-of-first-week" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Overview of first week</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs002.html#reading-recommendations" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Reading Recommendations</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs003.html#thursday-august-26" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Thursday August 26</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs004.html#lectures-and-computerlab" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Lectures and ComputerLab</b></a></li>
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<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs010.html#recommended-textbooks" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Recommended textbooks</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs011.html#prerequisites" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Prerequisites</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs012.html#learning-outcomes" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Learning outcomes</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs013.html#topics-covered-in-this-course-statistical-analysis-and-optimization-of-data" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Topics covered in this course: Statistical analysis and optimization of data</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs014.html#topics-covered-in-this-course-machine-learning" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Topics covered in this course: Machine Learning</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs015.html#extremely-useful-tools-strongly-recommended" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Extremely useful tools, strongly recommended</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs016.html#other-courses-on-data-science-and-machine-learning-at-uio" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Other courses on Data science and Machine Learning at UiO</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs017.html#introduction" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Introduction</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs018.html#what-is-machine-learning" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>What is Machine Learning?</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs019.html#types-of-machine-learning" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Types of Machine Learning</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs020.html#essential-elements-of-ml" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Essential elements of ML</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs021.html#an-optimization-minimization-problem" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>An optimization/minimization problem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs022.html#a-frequentist-approach-to-data-analysis" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>A Frequentist approach to data analysis</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs023.html#what-is-a-good-model" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>What is a good model?</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="#what-is-a-good-model-can-we-define-it" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>What is a good model? Can we define it?</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs025.html#software-and-needed-installations" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Software and needed installations</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs026.html#python-installers" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Python installers</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs027.html#useful-python-libraries" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Useful Python libraries</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs028.html#installing-r-c-cython-or-julia" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Installing R, C++, cython or Julia</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs029.html#installing-r-c-cython-numba-etc" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Installing R, C++, cython, Numba etc</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs030.html#numpy-examples-and-important-matrix-and-vector-handling-packages" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Numpy examples and Important Matrix and vector handling packages</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs031.html#basic-matrix-features" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Basic Matrix Features</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs032.html#some-famous-matrices" style="font-size: 80%;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Some famous Matrices</a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs033.html#more-basic-matrix-features" style="font-size: 80%;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;More Basic Matrix Features</a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs034.html#numpy-and-arrays" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Numpy and arrays</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs035.html#matrices-in-python" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Matrices in Python</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs036.html#meet-the-pandas" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Meet the Pandas</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs037.html#friday-august-27" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Friday August 27</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs038.html#simple-linear-regression-model-using-_scikit-learn_" style="font-size: 80%;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Simple linear regression model using <b>scikit-learn</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs038.html#to-our-real-data-nuclear-binding-energies-brief-reminder-on-masses-and-binding-energies" style="font-size: 80%;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;To our real data: nuclear binding energies. Brief reminder on masses and binding energies</a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs038.html#organizing-our-data" style="font-size: 80%;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Organizing our data</a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs038.html#seeing-the-wood-for-the-trees" style="font-size: 80%;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Seeing the wood for the trees</a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs038.html#and-what-about-using-neural-networks" style="font-size: 80%;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;And what about using neural networks?</a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs038.html#a-first-summary" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>A first summary</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs039.html#why-linear-regression-aka-ordinary-least-squares-and-family" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Why Linear Regression (aka Ordinary Least Squares and family)</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs040.html#regression-analysis-overarching-aims" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Regression analysis, overarching aims</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs041.html#regression-analysis-overarching-aims-ii" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Regression analysis, overarching aims II</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs042.html#examples" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Examples</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs043.html#general-linear-models" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>General linear models</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs044.html#rewriting-the-fitting-procedure-as-a-linear-algebra-problem" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Rewriting the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs045.html#rewriting-the-fitting-procedure-as-a-linear-algebra-problem-more-details" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Rewriting the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem, more details</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs047.html#generalizing-the-fitting-procedure-as-a-linear-algebra-problem" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Generalizing the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs047.html#generalizing-the-fitting-procedure-as-a-linear-algebra-problem" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Generalizing the fitting procedure as a linear algebra problem</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs048.html#optimizing-our-parameters" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs049.html#our-model-for-the-nuclear-binding-energies" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Our model for the nuclear binding energies</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs050.html#optimizing-our-parameters-more-details" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Optimizing our parameters, more details</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs054.html#interpretations-and-optimizing-our-parameters" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Interpretations and optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs054.html#interpretations-and-optimizing-our-parameters" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Interpretations and optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs053.html#some-useful-matrix-and-vector-expressions" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Some useful matrix and vector expressions</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs054.html#interpretations-and-optimizing-our-parameters" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Interpretations and optimizing our parameters</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs055.html#own-code-for-ordinary-least-squares" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Own code for Ordinary Least Squares</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs056.html#adding-error-analysis-and-training-set-up" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Adding error analysis and training set up</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs062.html#the-chi-2-function" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs062.html#the-chi-2-function" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs062.html#the-chi-2-function" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs062.html#the-chi-2-function" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs062.html#the-chi-2-function" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs062.html#the-chi-2-function" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The \( \chi^2 \) function</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs063.html#fitting-an-equation-of-state-for-dense-nuclear-matter" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Fitting an Equation of State for Dense Nuclear Matter</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs064.html#the-code" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>The code</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs065.html#splitting-our-data-in-training-and-test-data" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Splitting our Data in Training and Test data</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs066.html#exercises-for-week-36" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Exercises for week 36</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs066.html#exercise-1-setting-up-various-python-environments" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Exercise 1: Setting up various Python environments</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs066.html#exercise-2-making-your-own-data-and-exploring-scikit-learn" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Exercise 2: making your own data and exploring scikit-learn</b></a></li>
<!-- navigation toc: --> <li><a href="._week34-bs066.html#exercise-3-normalizing-our-data" style="font-size: 80%;"><b>Exercise 3: Normalizing our data</b></a></li>
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<a name="part0024"></a>
<!-- !split -->
<h2 id="what-is-a-good-model-can-we-define-it" class="anchor">What is a good model? Can we define it? </h2>
<p>
The central question is this: what leads us to say that a model is correct or
optimal for a given data set? To make the model inference problem well posed, i.e.,
to guarantee that there is a unique optimal model for the given data, we need to
impose additional assumptions or restrictions on the class of models considered. To
this end, we should not be looking for just any model that can describe the data.
Instead, we should look for a <b>model</b> \( M \) that is the best among a restricted class
of models. In addition, to make the model inference problem computationally
tractable, we need to specify how restricted the class of models needs to be. A
common strategy is to start
with the simplest possible class of models that is just necessary to describe the data
or solve the problem at hand. More precisely, the model class should be rich enough
to contain at least one model that can fit the data to a desired accuracy and yet be
restricted enough that it is relatively simple to find the best model for the given data.
<p>
Thus, the most popular strategy is to start from the
simplest class of models and increase the complexity of the models only when the
simpler models become inadequate. For instance, if we work with a regression problem to fit a set of sample points, one
may first try the simplest class of models, namely linear models, followed obviously by more complex models.
<p>
How to evaluate which model fits best the data is something we will come back to over and over again in these sets of lectures.
<p>
<p>
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