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<center>
<h1>Week 45: Decisions Trees, Random Forests, Bagging and Boosting</h1>
</center> <!-- document title -->
<!-- author(s): Morten Hjorth-Jensen -->
<center>
<b>Morten Hjorth-Jensen</b> [1, 2]
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<!-- institution(s) -->
<center>
[1] <b>Department of Physics, University of Oslo</b>
</center>
<center>
[2] <b>Department of Physics and Astronomy and National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University</b>
</center>
<br>
<center>
<h4>Nov 11, 2022</h4>
</center> <!-- date -->
<br>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="overview-of-week-45">Overview of week 45 </h2>
<ul>
<li> Thursday: Boosting methods, froma AdaBoost to Gradient boosting</li>
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://youtu.be/mK48PfCxgYk" target="_blank">Video of lecture</a></li>
</ul>
<li> Friday: Gradient boosting and discussion of Decision trees and ensemble methods. Wrapping up trees and start discussing Support Vector Machines</li>
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://youtu.be/v8eJBFeZKuI" target="_blank">Video of lecture</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div class="alert alert-block alert-block alert-text-normal">
<b>Videos</b>
<p>
<ol>
<li> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmajweUFKvM&ab_channel=Simplilearn" target="_blank">Video on Decision trees</a></li>
<li> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPqtzj5VZus&ab_channel=H2O.ai" target="_blank">Video on boosting methods by Hastie</a>.</li>
<li> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsK-xG1cLYA" target="_blank">Video on AdaBoost</a></li>
<li> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CC4N4z3GJc" target="_blank">Video on Gradient boost, part 1, parts 2-4 follows</a></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="alert alert-block alert-block alert-text-normal">
<b>Reading</b>
<p>
<ol>
<li> <a href="https://github.com/CompPhysics/MachineLearning/blob/master/doc/Textbooks/elementsstat.pdf" target="_blank">Hastie et al, chapter 10.1-10.10</a>. Geron's chapters 6 and 7 are also useful.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="brief-code-reminder-from-last-wekk">Brief code reminder from last wekk </h2>
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<pre style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="color: #666666">%</span>matplotlib inline
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Common imports</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">IPython.display</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> Image
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">pydot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> graph_from_dot_data
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">pandas</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">pd</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">numpy</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">np</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">matplotlib.pyplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">plt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> train_test_split
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.tree</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> export_graphviz
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.preprocessing</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> StandardScaler, OneHotEncoder
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.compose</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> ColumnTransformer
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">pydot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> graph_from_dot_data
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.datasets</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> load_breast_cancer
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.svm</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> SVC
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.linear_model</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> LogisticRegression
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.tree</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> DecisionTreeClassifier
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.ensemble</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> RandomForestClassifier
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.preprocessing</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> LabelEncoder
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> cross_validate
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">scikitplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">skplt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.preprocessing</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> StandardScaler
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">os</span>
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Where to save the figures and data files</span>
PROJECT_ROOT_DIR <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Results&quot;</span>
FIGURE_ID <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Results/FigureFiles&quot;</span>
DATA_ID <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;DataFiles/&quot;</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">if</span> <span style="color: #AA22FF; font-weight: bold">not</span> os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>path<span style="color: #666666">.</span>exists(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR):
os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mkdir(PROJECT_ROOT_DIR)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">if</span> <span style="color: #AA22FF; font-weight: bold">not</span> os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>path<span style="color: #666666">.</span>exists(FIGURE_ID):
os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>makedirs(FIGURE_ID)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">if</span> <span style="color: #AA22FF; font-weight: bold">not</span> os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>path<span style="color: #666666">.</span>exists(DATA_ID):
os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>makedirs(DATA_ID)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">def</span> <span style="color: #0000FF">image_path</span>(fig_id):
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">return</span> os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>path<span style="color: #666666">.</span>join(FIGURE_ID, fig_id)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">def</span> <span style="color: #0000FF">data_path</span>(dat_id):
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">return</span> os<span style="color: #666666">.</span>path<span style="color: #666666">.</span>join(DATA_ID, dat_id)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">def</span> <span style="color: #0000FF">save_fig</span>(fig_id):
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>savefig(image_path(fig_id) <span style="color: #666666">+</span> <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;.png&quot;</span>, <span style="color: #008000">format</span><span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;png&#39;</span>)
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Load the cancer data</span>
cancer <span style="color: #666666">=</span> load_breast_cancer()
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test <span style="color: #666666">=</span> train_test_split(cancer<span style="color: #666666">.</span>data,cancer<span style="color: #666666">.</span>target,random_state<span style="color: #666666">=0</span>)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(X_train<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(X_test<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic">#Scale the data</span>
scaler <span style="color: #666666">=</span> StandardScaler()
scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train)
X_train_scaled <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>transform(X_train)
X_test_scaled <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>transform(X_test)
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic">#define methods</span>
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Logistic Regression</span>
logreg <span style="color: #666666">=</span> LogisticRegression(solver<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;lbfgs&#39;</span>)
logreg<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Test set accuracy Logistic Regression with scaled data: </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{:.2f}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(logreg<span style="color: #666666">.</span>score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Decision Trees</span>
deep_tree_clf <span style="color: #666666">=</span> DecisionTreeClassifier(max_depth<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">None</span>)
deep_tree_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Test set accuracy with Decision Trees and scaled data: </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{:.2f}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(deep_tree_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Support Vector Machine</span>
svm <span style="color: #666666">=</span> SVC(gamma<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;auto&#39;</span>, C<span style="color: #666666">=100</span>)
svm<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Test set accuracy SVM with scaled data: </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{:.2f}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(logreg<span style="color: #666666">.</span>score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Random forests</span>
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic">#Instantiate the model with 500 trees and entropy as splitting criteria</span>
Random_Forest_model <span style="color: #666666">=</span> RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators<span style="color: #666666">=500</span>,criterion<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;entropy&quot;</span>)
Random_Forest_model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Test set accuracy with Random Forests and scaled data: </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{:.2f}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(Random_Forest_model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
y_pred <span style="color: #666666">=</span> Random_Forest_model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict(X_test_scaled)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">True</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
y_probas <span style="color: #666666">=</span> Random_Forest_model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict_proba(X_test_scaled)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
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<h2 id="boosting-a-bird-s-eye-view">Boosting, a Bird's Eye View </h2>
<p>The basic idea is to combine weak classifiers in order to create a good
classifier. With a weak classifier we often intend a classifier which
produces results which are only slightly better than we would get by
random guesses.
</p>
<p>This is done by applying in an iterative way a weak (or a standard
classifier like decision trees) to modify the data. In each iteration
we emphasize those observations which are misclassified by weighting
them with a factor.
</p>
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<h2 id="what-is-boosting-additive-modelling-iterative-fitting">What is boosting? Additive Modelling/Iterative Fitting </h2>
<p>Boosting is a way of fitting an additive expansion in a set of
elementary basis functions like for example some simple polynomials.
Assume for example that we have a function
</p>
$$
f_M(x) = \sum_{i=1}^M \beta_m b(x;\gamma_m),
$$
<p>where \( \beta_m \) are the expansion parameters to be determined in a
minimization process and \( b(x;\gamma_m) \) are some simple functions of
the multivariable parameter \( x \) which is characterized by the
parameters \( \gamma_m \).
</p>
<p>As an example, consider the Sigmoid function we used in logistic
regression. In that case, we can translate the function
\( b(x;\gamma_m) \) into the Sigmoid function
</p>
$$
\sigma(t) = \frac{1}{1+\exp{(-t)}},
$$
<p>where \( t=\gamma_0+\gamma_1 x \) and the parameters \( \gamma_0 \) and
\( \gamma_1 \) were determined by the Logistic Regression fitting
algorithm.
</p>
<p>As another example, consider the cost function we defined for linear regression</p>
$$
C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f(x_i))^2.
$$
<p>In this case the function \( f(x) \) was replaced by the design matrix
\( \boldsymbol{X} \) and the unknown linear regression parameters \( \boldsymbol{\beta} \),
that is \( \boldsymbol{f}=\boldsymbol{X}\boldsymbol{\beta} \). In linear regression we can
simply invert a matrix and obtain the parameters \( \beta \) by
</p>
$$
\boldsymbol{\beta}=\left(\boldsymbol{X}^T\boldsymbol{X}\right)^{-1}\boldsymbol{X}^T\boldsymbol{y}.
$$
<p>In iterative fitting or additive modeling, we minimize the cost function with respect to the parameters \( \beta_m \) and \( \gamma_m \).</p>
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<h2 id="iterative-fitting-regression-and-squared-error-cost-function">Iterative Fitting, Regression and Squared-error Cost Function </h2>
<p>The way we proceed is as follows (here we specialize to the squared-error cost function)</p>
<ol>
<li> Establish a cost function, here \( {\cal C}(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_M(x_i))^2 \) with \( f_M(x) = \sum_{i=1}^M \beta_m b(x;\gamma_m) \).</li>
<li> Initialize with a guess \( f_0(x) \). It could be one or even zero or some random numbers.</li>
<li> For \( m=1:M \)
<ol type="a"></li>
<li> minimize \( \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_{m-1}(x_i)-\beta b(x;\gamma))^2 \) wrt \( \gamma \) and \( \beta \)</li>
<li> This gives the optimal values \( \beta_m \) and \( \gamma_m \)</li>
<li> Determine then the new values \( f_m(x)=f_{m-1}(x) +\beta_m b(x;\gamma_m) \)</li>
</ol>
</ol>
<p>We could use any of the algorithms we have discussed till now. If we
use trees, \( \gamma \) parameterizes the split variables and split points
at the internal nodes, and the predictions at the terminal nodes.
</p>
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<h2 id="squared-error-example-and-iterative-fitting">Squared-Error Example and Iterative Fitting </h2>
<p>To better understand what happens, let us develop the steps for the iterative fitting using the above squared error function.</p>
<p>For simplicity we assume also that our functions \( b(x;\gamma)=1+\gamma x \). </p>
<p>This means that for every iteration \( m \), we need to optimize</p>
$$
(\beta_m,\gamma_m) = \mathrm{argmin}_{\beta,\lambda}\hspace{0.1cm} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_{m-1}(x_i)-\beta b(x;\gamma))^2=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f_{m-1}(x_i)-\beta(1+\gamma x_i))^2.
$$
<p>We start our iteration by simply setting \( f_0(x)=0 \).
Taking the derivatives with respect to \( \beta \) and \( \gamma \) we obtain
</p>
$$
\frac{\partial {\cal C}}{\partial \beta} = -2\sum_{i}(1+\gamma x_i)(y_i-\beta(1+\gamma x_i))=0,
$$
<p>and</p>
$$
\frac{\partial {\cal C}}{\partial \gamma} =-2\sum_{i}\beta x_i(y_i-\beta(1+\gamma x_i))=0.
$$
<p>We can then rewrite these equations as (defining \( \boldsymbol{w}=\boldsymbol{e}+\gamma \boldsymbol{x}) \) with \( \boldsymbol{e} \) being the unit vector)</p>
$$
\gamma \boldsymbol{w}^T(\boldsymbol{y}-\beta\gamma \boldsymbol{w})=0,
$$
<p>which gives us \( \beta = \boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{y}/(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{w}) \). Similarly we have </p>
$$
\beta\gamma \boldsymbol{x}^T(\boldsymbol{y}-\beta(1+\gamma \boldsymbol{x}))=0,
$$
<p>which leads to \( \gamma =(\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{y}-\beta\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{e})/(\beta\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{x}) \). Inserting
for \( \beta \) gives us an equation for \( \gamma \). This is a non-linear equation in the unknown \( \gamma \) and has to be solved numerically.
</p>
<p>The solution to these two equations gives us in turn \( \beta_1 \) and \( \gamma_1 \) leading to the new expression for \( f_1(x) \) as
\( f_1(x) = \beta_1(1+\gamma_1x) \). Doing this \( M \) times results in our final estimate for the function \( f \).
</p>
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<h2 id="iterative-fitting-classification-and-adaboost">Iterative Fitting, Classification and AdaBoost </h2>
<p>Let us consider a binary classification problem with two outcomes \( y_i \in \{-1,1\} \) and \( i=0,1,2,\dots,n-1 \) as our set of
observations. We define a classification function \( G(x) \) which produces a prediction taking one or the other of the two values
\( \{-1,1\} \).
</p>
<p>The error rate of the training sample is then</p>
$$
\mathrm{\overline{err}}=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} I(y_i\ne G(x_i)).
$$
<p>The iterative procedure starts with defining a weak classifier whose
error rate is barely better than random guessing. The iterative
procedure in boosting is to sequentially apply a weak
classification algorithm to repeatedly modified versions of the data
producing a sequence of weak classifiers \( G_m(x) \).
</p>
<p>Here we will express our function \( f(x) \) in terms of \( G(x) \). That is</p>
$$
f_M(x) = \sum_{i=1}^M \beta_m b(x;\gamma_m),
$$
<p>will be a function of </p>
$$
G_M(x) = \mathrm{sign} \sum_{i=1}^M \alpha_m G_m(x).
$$
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<h2 id="adaptive-boosting-adaboost">Adaptive Boosting, AdaBoost </h2>
<p>In our iterative procedure we define thus</p>
$$
f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x)+\beta_mG_m(x).
$$
<p>The simplest possible cost function which leads (also simple from a computational point of view) to the AdaBoost algorithm is the
exponential cost/loss function defined as
</p>
$$
C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}\exp{(-y_i(f_{m-1}(x_i)+\beta G(x_i))}.
$$
<p>We optimize \( \beta \) and \( G \) for each value of \( m=1:M \) as we did in the regression case.
This is normally done in two steps. Let us however first rewrite the cost function as
</p>
$$
C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f}) = \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^{m}\exp{(-y_i\beta G(x_i))},
$$
<p>where we have defined \( w_i^m= \exp{(-y_if_{m-1}(x_i))} \).</p>
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<h2 id="building-up-adaboost">Building up AdaBoost </h2>
<p>First, for any \( \beta > 0 \), we optimize \( G \) by setting</p>
$$
G_m(x) = \mathrm{sign} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} w_i^m I(y_i \ne G_(x_i)),
$$
<p>which is the classifier that minimizes the weighted error rate in predicting \( y \).</p>
<p>We can do this by rewriting</p>
$$
\exp{-(\beta)}\sum_{y_i=G(x_i)}w_i^m+\exp{(\beta)}\sum_{y_i\ne G(x_i)}w_i^m,
$$
<p>which can be rewritten as</p>
$$
(\exp{(\beta)}-\exp{-(\beta)})\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^mI(y_i\ne G(x_i))+\exp{(-\beta)}\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^m=0,
$$
<p>which leads to</p>
$$
\beta_m = \frac{1}{2}\log{\frac{1-\mathrm{\overline{err}}}{\mathrm{\overline{err}}}},
$$
<p>where we have redefined the error as </p>
$$
\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m=\frac{1}{n}\frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^mI(y_i\ne G(x_i)}{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^m},
$$
<p>which leads to an update of</p>
$$
f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x) +\beta_m G_m(x).
$$
<p>This leads to the new weights</p>
$$
w_i^{m+1} = w_i^m \exp{(-y_i\beta_m G_m(x_i))}
$$
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<h2 id="adaptive-boosting-adaboost-basic-algorithm">Adaptive boosting: AdaBoost, Basic Algorithm </h2>
<p>The algorithm here is rather straightforward. Assume that our weak
classifier is a decision tree and we consider a binary set of outputs
with \( y_i \in \{-1,1\} \) and \( i=0,1,2,\dots,n-1 \) as our set of
observations. Our design matrix is given in terms of the
feature/predictor vectors
\( \boldsymbol{X}=[\boldsymbol{x}_0\boldsymbol{x}_1\dots\boldsymbol{x}_{p-1}] \). Finally, we define also a
classifier determined by our data via a function \( G(x) \). This function tells us how well we are able to classify our outputs/targets \( \boldsymbol{y} \).
</p>
<p>We have already defined the misclassification error \( \mathrm{err} \) as</p>
$$
\mathrm{err}=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}I(y_i\ne G(x_i)),
$$
<p>where the function \( I() \) is one if we misclassify and zero if we classify correctly. </p>
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<h2 id="basic-steps-of-adaboost">Basic Steps of AdaBoost </h2>
<p>With the above definitions we are now ready to set up the algorithm for AdaBoost.
The basic idea is to set up weights which will be used to scale the correctly classified and the misclassified cases.
</p>
<ol>
<li> We start by initializing all weights to \( w_i = 1/n \), with \( i=0,1,2,\dots n-1 \). It is easy to see that we must have \( \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i = 1 \).</li>
<li> We rewrite the misclassification error as</li>
</ol>
$$
\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m=\frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i^m I(y_i\ne G(x_i))}{\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}w_i},
$$
<ol>
<li> Then we start looping over all attempts at classifying, namely we start an iterative process for \( m=1:M \), where \( M \) is the final number of classifications. Our given classifier could for example be a plain decision tree.
<ol type="a"></li>
<li> Fit then a given classifier to the training set using the weights \( w_i \).</li>
<li> Compute then \( \mathrm{err} \) and figure out which events are classified properly and which are classified wrongly.</li>
<li> Define a quantity \( \alpha_{m} = \log{(1-\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m)/\mathrm{\overline{err}}_m} \)</li>
<li> Set the new weights to \( w_i = w_i\times \exp{(\alpha_m I(y_i\ne G(x_i)} \).</li>
</ol>
<li> Compute the new classifier \( G(x)= \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}\alpha_m I(y_i\ne G(x_i) \).</li>
</ol>
<p>For the iterations with \( m \le 2 \) the weights are modified
individually at each steps. The observations which were misclassified
at iteration \( m-1 \) have a weight which is larger than those which were
classified properly. As this proceeds, the observations which were
difficult to classifiy correctly are given a larger influence. Each
new classification step \( m \) is then forced to concentrate on those
observations that are missed in the previous iterations.
</p>
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<h2 id="adaboost-examples">AdaBoost Examples </h2>
<p>Using <b>Scikit-Learn</b> it is easy to apply the adaptive boosting algorithm, as done here.</p>
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<pre style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.ensemble</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> AdaBoostClassifier
ada_clf <span style="color: #666666">=</span> AdaBoostClassifier(
DecisionTreeClassifier(max_depth<span style="color: #666666">=2</span>), n_estimators<span style="color: #666666">=200</span>,
algorithm<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;SAMME.R&quot;</span>, learning_rate<span style="color: #666666">=0.01</span>, random_state<span style="color: #666666">=42</span>)
ada_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pred <span style="color: #666666">=</span> ada_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict(X_test)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">True</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
y_probas <span style="color: #666666">=</span> ada_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict_proba(X_test)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
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<h2 id="gradient-boosting-basics-with-steepest-descent-functional-gradient-descent">Gradient boosting: Basics with Steepest Descent/Functional Gradient Descent </h2>
<p>Gradient boosting is again a similar technique to Adaptive boosting,
it combines so-called weak classifiers or regressors into a strong
method via a series of iterations.
</p>
<p>In order to understand the method, let us illustrate its basics by
bringing back the essential steps in linear regression, where our cost
function was the least squares function.
</p>
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<h2 id="the-squared-error-again-steepest-descent">The Squared-Error again! Steepest Descent </h2>
<p>We start again with our cost function \( {\cal C}(\boldsymbol{y}m\boldsymbol{f})=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}{\cal L}(y_i, f(x_i)) \) where we want to minimize
This means that for every iteration, we need to optimize
</p>
$$
(\hat{\boldsymbol{f}}) = \mathrm{argmin}_{\boldsymbol{f}}\hspace{0.1cm} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f(x_i))^2.
$$
<p>We define a real function \( h_m(x) \) that defines our final function \( f_M(x) \) as</p>
$$
f_M(x) = \sum_{m=0}^M h_m(x).
$$
<p>In the steepest decent approach we approximate \( h_m(x) = -\rho_m g_m(x) \), where \( \rho_m \) is a scalar and \( g_m(x) \) the gradient defined as</p>
$$
g_m(x_i) = \left[ \frac{\partial {\cal L}(y_i, f(x_i))}{\partial f(x_i)}\right]_{f(x_i)=f_{m-1}(x_i)}.
$$
<p>With the new gradient we can update \( f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x) -\rho_m g_m(x) \). Using the above squared-error function we see that
the gradient is \( g_m(x_i) = -2(y_i-f(x_i)) \).
</p>
<p>Choosing \( f_0(x)=0 \) we obtain \( g_m(x) = -2y_i \) and inserting this into the minimization problem for the cost function we have</p>
$$
(\rho_1) = \mathrm{argmin}_{\rho}\hspace{0.1cm} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i+2\rho y_i)^2.
$$
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<h2 id="steepest-descent-example">Steepest Descent Example </h2>
<p>Optimizing with respect to \( \rho \) we obtain (taking the derivative) that \( \rho_1 = -1/2 \). We have then that</p>
$$
f_1(x) = f_{0}(x) -\rho_1 g_1(x)=-y_i.
$$
<p>We can then proceed and compute</p>
$$
g_2(x_i) = \left[ \frac{\partial {\cal L}(y_i, f(x_i))}{\partial f(x_i)}\right]_{f(x_i)=f_{1}(x_i)=y_i}=-4y_i,
$$
<p>and find a new value for \( \rho_2=-1/2 \) and continue till we have reached \( m=M \). We can modify the steepest descent method, or steepest boosting, by introducing what is called <b>gradient boosting</b>. </p>
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<h2 id="gradient-boosting-algorithm">Gradient Boosting, algorithm </h2>
<p>Steepest descent is however not much used, since it only optimizes \( f \) at a fixed set of \( n \) points,
so we do not learn a function that can generalize. However, we can modify the algorithm by
fitting a weak learner to approximate the negative gradient signal.
</p>
<p>Suppose we have a cost function \( C(f)=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}L(y_i, f(x_i)) \) where \( y_i \) is our target and \( f(x_i) \) the function which is meant to model \( y_i \). The above cost function could be our standard squared-error function</p>
$$
C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f})=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}(y_i-f(x_i))^2.
$$
<p>The way we proceed in an iterative fashion is to</p>
<ol>
<li> Initialize our estimate \( f_0(x) \).</li>
<li> For \( m=1:M \), we
<ol type="a"></li>
<li> compute the negative gradient vector \( \boldsymbol{u}_m = -\partial C(\boldsymbol{y},\boldsymbol{f})/\partial \boldsymbol{f}(x) \) at \( f(x) = f_{m-1}(x) \);</li>
<li> fit the so-called base-learner to the negative gradient \( h_m(u_m,x) \);</li>
<li> update the estimate \( f_m(x) = f_{m-1}(x)+h_m(u_m,x) \);</li>
</ol>
<li> The final estimate is then \( f_M(x) = \sum_{m=1}^M h_m(u_m,x) \).</li>
</ol>
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<h2 id="gradient-boosting-examples-of-regression">Gradient Boosting, Examples of Regression </h2>
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<pre style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">matplotlib.pyplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">plt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">numpy</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">np</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> train_test_split
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.ensemble</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> GradientBoostingRegressor
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">scikitplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">skplt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.metrics</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> mean_squared_error
n <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">100</span>
maxdegree <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">6</span>
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Make data set.</span>
x <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>linspace(<span style="color: #666666">-3</span>, <span style="color: #666666">3</span>, n)<span style="color: #666666">.</span>reshape(<span style="color: #666666">-1</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>)
y <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>exp(<span style="color: #666666">-</span>x<span style="color: #666666">**2</span>) <span style="color: #666666">+</span> <span style="color: #666666">1.5</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>exp(<span style="color: #666666">-</span>(x<span style="color: #666666">-2</span>)<span style="color: #666666">**2</span>)<span style="color: #666666">+</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>random<span style="color: #666666">.</span>normal(<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">0.1</span>, x<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
error <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
bias <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
variance <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
polydegree <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test <span style="color: #666666">=</span> train_test_split(x, y, test_size<span style="color: #666666">=0.2</span>)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">for</span> degree <span style="color: #AA22FF; font-weight: bold">in</span> <span style="color: #008000">range</span>(<span style="color: #666666">1</span>,maxdegree):
model <span style="color: #666666">=</span> GradientBoostingRegressor(max_depth<span style="color: #666666">=</span>degree, n_estimators<span style="color: #666666">=100</span>, learning_rate<span style="color: #666666">=1.0</span>)
model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train,y_train)
y_pred <span style="color: #666666">=</span> model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict(X_test)
polydegree[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> degree
error[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean( np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean((y_test <span style="color: #666666">-</span> y_pred)<span style="color: #666666">**2</span>) )
bias[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean( (y_test <span style="color: #666666">-</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean(y_pred))<span style="color: #666666">**2</span> )
variance[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean( np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>var(y_pred) )
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Max depth:&#39;</span>, degree)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Error:&#39;</span>, error[degree])
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Bias^2:&#39;</span>, bias[degree])
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Var:&#39;</span>, variance[degree])
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;</span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121"> &gt;= </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121"> + </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121"> = </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(error[degree], bias[degree], variance[degree], bias[degree]<span style="color: #666666">+</span>variance[degree]))
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>xlim(<span style="color: #666666">1</span>,maxdegree<span style="color: #666666">-1</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(polydegree, error, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Error&#39;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(polydegree, bias, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;bias&#39;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(polydegree, variance, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Variance&#39;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>legend()
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;gdregression&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
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<h2 id="gradient-boosting-classification-example">Gradient Boosting, Classification Example </h2>
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<pre style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">matplotlib.pyplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">plt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">numpy</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">np</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> train_test_split
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.datasets</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> load_breast_cancer
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">scikitplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">skplt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.ensemble</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> GradientBoostingClassifier
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> cross_validate
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Load the data</span>
cancer <span style="color: #666666">=</span> load_breast_cancer()
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test <span style="color: #666666">=</span> train_test_split(cancer<span style="color: #666666">.</span>data,cancer<span style="color: #666666">.</span>target,random_state<span style="color: #666666">=0</span>)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(X_train<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(X_test<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic">#now scale the data</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.preprocessing</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> StandardScaler
scaler <span style="color: #666666">=</span> StandardScaler()
scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train)
X_train_scaled <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>transform(X_train)
X_test_scaled <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>transform(X_test)
gd_clf <span style="color: #666666">=</span> GradientBoostingClassifier(max_depth<span style="color: #666666">=3</span>, n_estimators<span style="color: #666666">=100</span>, learning_rate<span style="color: #666666">=1.0</span>)
gd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic">#Cross validation</span>
accuracy <span style="color: #666666">=</span> cross_validate(gd_clf,X_test_scaled,y_test,cv<span style="color: #666666">=10</span>)[<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;test_score&#39;</span>]
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(accuracy)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Test set accuracy with Gradient boosting and scaled data: </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{:.2f}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(gd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">scikitplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">skplt</span>
y_pred <span style="color: #666666">=</span> gd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict(X_test_scaled)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">True</span>)
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;gdclassiffierconfusion&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
y_probas <span style="color: #666666">=</span> gd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict_proba(X_test_scaled)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;gdclassiffierroc&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;gdclassiffiercgain&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
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<h2 id="xgboost-extreme-gradient-boosting">XGBoost: Extreme Gradient Boosting </h2>
<p><a href="https://github.com/dmlc/xgboost" target="_blank">XGBoost</a> or Extreme Gradient
Boosting, is an optimized distributed gradient boosting library
designed to be highly efficient, flexible and portable. It implements
machine learning algorithms under the Gradient Boosting
framework. XGBoost provides a parallel tree boosting that solve many
data science problems in a fast and accurate way. See the <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.02754" target="_blank">article by Chen and Guestrin</a>.
</p>
<p>The authors design and build a highly scalable end-to-end tree
boosting system. It has a theoretically justified weighted quantile
sketch for efficient proposal calculation. It introduces a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for parallel tree learning and an effective cache-aware block structure for out-of-core tree learning.
</p>
<p>It is now the algorithm which wins essentially all ML competitions!!!</p>
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<h2 id="regression-case">Regression Case </h2>
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<pre style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">matplotlib.pyplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">plt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">numpy</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">np</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> train_test_split
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">xgboost</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">xgb</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">scikitplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">skplt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.metrics</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> mean_squared_error
n <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">100</span>
maxdegree <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">6</span>
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Make data set.</span>
x <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>linspace(<span style="color: #666666">-3</span>, <span style="color: #666666">3</span>, n)<span style="color: #666666">.</span>reshape(<span style="color: #666666">-1</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>)
y <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>exp(<span style="color: #666666">-</span>x<span style="color: #666666">**2</span>) <span style="color: #666666">+</span> <span style="color: #666666">1.5</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>exp(<span style="color: #666666">-</span>(x<span style="color: #666666">-2</span>)<span style="color: #666666">**2</span>)<span style="color: #666666">+</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>random<span style="color: #666666">.</span>normal(<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">0.1</span>, x<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
error <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
bias <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
variance <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
polydegree <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>zeros(maxdegree)
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test <span style="color: #666666">=</span> train_test_split(x, y, test_size<span style="color: #666666">=0.2</span>)
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">for</span> degree <span style="color: #AA22FF; font-weight: bold">in</span> <span style="color: #008000">range</span>(maxdegree):
model <span style="color: #666666">=</span> xgb<span style="color: #666666">.</span>XGBRegressor(objective <span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;reg:squarederror&#39;</span>, colsaobjective <span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;reg:squarederror&#39;</span>, colsample_bytree <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">0.3</span>, learning_rate <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">0.1</span>,max_depth <span style="color: #666666">=</span> degree, alpha <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">10</span>, n_estimators <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">200</span>)
model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train,y_train)
y_pred <span style="color: #666666">=</span> model<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict(X_test)
polydegree[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> degree
error[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean( np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean((y_test <span style="color: #666666">-</span> y_pred)<span style="color: #666666">**2</span>) )
bias[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean( (y_test <span style="color: #666666">-</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean(y_pred))<span style="color: #666666">**2</span> )
variance[degree] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>mean( np<span style="color: #666666">.</span>var(y_pred) )
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Max depth:&#39;</span>, degree)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Error:&#39;</span>, error[degree])
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Bias^2:&#39;</span>, bias[degree])
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Var:&#39;</span>, variance[degree])
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;</span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121"> &gt;= </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121"> + </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121"> = </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(error[degree], bias[degree], variance[degree], bias[degree]<span style="color: #666666">+</span>variance[degree]))
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>xlim(<span style="color: #666666">1</span>,maxdegree<span style="color: #666666">-1</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(polydegree, error, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Error&#39;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(polydegree, bias, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;bias&#39;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(polydegree, variance, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;Variance&#39;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>legend()
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
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<h2 id="xgboost-on-the-cancer-data">Xgboost on the Cancer Data </h2>
<p>As you will see from the confusion matrix below, XGBoots does an excellent job on the Wisconsin cancer data and outperforms essentially all agorithms we have discussed till now. </p>
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<pre style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">matplotlib.pyplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">plt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">numpy</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">np</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> train_test_split
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.datasets</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> load_breast_cancer
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.preprocessing</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> LabelEncoder
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.model_selection</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> cross_validate
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">scikitplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">skplt</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">xgboost</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">xgb</span>
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Load the data</span>
cancer <span style="color: #666666">=</span> load_breast_cancer()
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test <span style="color: #666666">=</span> train_test_split(cancer<span style="color: #666666">.</span>data,cancer<span style="color: #666666">.</span>target,random_state<span style="color: #666666">=0</span>)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(X_train<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(X_test<span style="color: #666666">.</span>shape)
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic">#now scale the data</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.preprocessing</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> StandardScaler
scaler <span style="color: #666666">=</span> StandardScaler()
scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train)
X_train_scaled <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>transform(X_train)
X_test_scaled <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>transform(X_test)
xg_clf <span style="color: #666666">=</span> xgb<span style="color: #666666">.</span>XGBClassifier()
xg_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_train_scaled,y_train)
y_test <span style="color: #666666">=</span> xg_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict(X_test_scaled)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Test set accuracy with Gradient Boosting and scaled data: </span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{:.2f}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(xg_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>score(X_test_scaled,y_test)))
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">scikitplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">skplt</span>
y_pred <span style="color: #666666">=</span> xg_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict(X_test_scaled)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, normalize<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">True</span>)
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;xdclassiffierconfusion&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
y_probas <span style="color: #666666">=</span> xg_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>predict_proba(X_test_scaled)
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_roc(y_test, y_probas)
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;xdclassiffierroc&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
skplt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>metrics<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_cumulative_gain(y_test, y_probas)
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;gdclassiffiercgain&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
xgb<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_tree(xg_clf,num_trees<span style="color: #666666">=0</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>rcParams[<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;figure.figsize&#39;</span>] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> [<span style="color: #666666">50</span>, <span style="color: #666666">10</span>]
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;xgtree&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
xgb<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot_importance(xg_clf)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>rcParams[<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;figure.figsize&#39;</span>] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> [<span style="color: #666666">5</span>, <span style="color: #666666">5</span>]
save_fig(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;xgparams&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
</pre>
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<h2 id="support-vector-machines-overarching-aims">Support Vector Machines, overarching aims </h2>
<p>A Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a very powerful and versatile
Machine Learning method, capable of performing linear or nonlinear
classification, regression, and even outlier detection. It is one of
the most popular models in Machine Learning, and anyone interested in
Machine Learning should have it in their toolbox. SVMs are
particularly well suited for classification of complex but small-sized or
medium-sized datasets.
</p>
<p>The case with two well-separated classes only can be understood in an
intuitive way in terms of lines in a two-dimensional space separating
the two classes (see figure below).
</p>
<p>The basic mathematics behind the SVM is however less familiar to most of us.
It relies on the definition of hyperplanes and the
definition of a <b>margin</b> which separates classes (in case of
classification problems) of variables. It is also used for regression
problems.
</p>
<p>With SVMs we distinguish between hard margin and soft margins. The
latter introduces a so-called softening parameter to be discussed
below. We distinguish also between linear and non-linear
approaches. The latter are the most frequent ones since it is rather
unlikely that we can separate classes easily by say straight lines.
</p>
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<h2 id="hyperplanes-and-all-that">Hyperplanes and all that </h2>
<p>The theory behind support vector machines (SVM hereafter) is based on
the mathematical description of so-called hyperplanes. Let us start
with a two-dimensional case. This will also allow us to introduce our
first SVM examples. These will be tailored to the case of two specific
classes, as displayed in the figure here based on the usage of the petal data.
</p>
<p>We assume here that our data set can be well separated into two
domains, where a straight line does the job in the separating the two
classes. Here the two classes are represented by either squares or
circles.
</p>
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<pre style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> datasets
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.svm</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> SVC, LinearSVC
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.linear_model</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> SGDClassifier
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">from</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">sklearn.preprocessing</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> StandardScaler
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">matplotlib</span>
<span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">import</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">matplotlib.pyplot</span> <span style="color: #008000; font-weight: bold">as</span> <span style="color: #0000FF; font-weight: bold">plt</span>
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>rcParams[<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;axes.labelsize&#39;</span>] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">14</span>
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>rcParams[<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;xtick.labelsize&#39;</span>] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">12</span>
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>rcParams[<span style="color: #BA2121">&#39;ytick.labelsize&#39;</span>] <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">12</span>
iris <span style="color: #666666">=</span> datasets<span style="color: #666666">.</span>load_iris()
X <span style="color: #666666">=</span> iris[<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;data&quot;</span>][:, (<span style="color: #666666">2</span>, <span style="color: #666666">3</span>)] <span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># petal length, petal width</span>
y <span style="color: #666666">=</span> iris[<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;target&quot;</span>]
setosa_or_versicolor <span style="color: #666666">=</span> (y <span style="color: #666666">==</span> <span style="color: #666666">0</span>) <span style="color: #666666">|</span> (y <span style="color: #666666">==</span> <span style="color: #666666">1</span>)
X <span style="color: #666666">=</span> X[setosa_or_versicolor]
y <span style="color: #666666">=</span> y[setosa_or_versicolor]
C <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">5</span>
alpha <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">1</span> <span style="color: #666666">/</span> (C <span style="color: #666666">*</span> <span style="color: #008000">len</span>(X))
lin_clf <span style="color: #666666">=</span> LinearSVC(loss<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;hinge&quot;</span>, C<span style="color: #666666">=</span>C, random_state<span style="color: #666666">=42</span>)
svm_clf <span style="color: #666666">=</span> SVC(kernel<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;linear&quot;</span>, C<span style="color: #666666">=</span>C)
sgd_clf <span style="color: #666666">=</span> SGDClassifier(loss<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;hinge&quot;</span>, learning_rate<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;constant&quot;</span>, eta0<span style="color: #666666">=0.001</span>, alpha<span style="color: #666666">=</span>alpha,
max_iter<span style="color: #666666">=100000</span>, random_state<span style="color: #666666">=42</span>)
scaler <span style="color: #666666">=</span> StandardScaler()
X_scaled <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit_transform(X)
lin_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_scaled, y)
svm_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_scaled, y)
sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>fit(X_scaled, y)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;LinearSVC: &quot;</span>, lin_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>intercept_, lin_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;SVC: &quot;</span>, svm_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>intercept_, svm_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_)
<span style="color: #008000">print</span>(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;SGDClassifier(alpha=</span><span style="color: #BB6688; font-weight: bold">{:.5f}</span><span style="color: #BA2121">):&quot;</span><span style="color: #666666">.</span>format(sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>alpha), sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>intercept_, sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_)
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Compute the slope and bias of each decision boundary</span>
w1 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">-</span>lin_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>]<span style="color: #666666">/</span>lin_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>]
b1 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">-</span>lin_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>intercept_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>]<span style="color: #666666">/</span>lin_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>]
w2 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">-</span>svm_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>]<span style="color: #666666">/</span>svm_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>]
b2 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">-</span>svm_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>intercept_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>]<span style="color: #666666">/</span>svm_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>]
w3 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">-</span>sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>]<span style="color: #666666">/</span>sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>]
b3 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> <span style="color: #666666">-</span>sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>intercept_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>]<span style="color: #666666">/</span>sgd_clf<span style="color: #666666">.</span>coef_[<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>]
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Transform the decision boundary lines back to the original scale</span>
line1 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>inverse_transform([[<span style="color: #666666">-10</span>, <span style="color: #666666">-10</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> w1 <span style="color: #666666">+</span> b1], [<span style="color: #666666">10</span>, <span style="color: #666666">10</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> w1 <span style="color: #666666">+</span> b1]])
line2 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>inverse_transform([[<span style="color: #666666">-10</span>, <span style="color: #666666">-10</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> w2 <span style="color: #666666">+</span> b2], [<span style="color: #666666">10</span>, <span style="color: #666666">10</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> w2 <span style="color: #666666">+</span> b2]])
line3 <span style="color: #666666">=</span> scaler<span style="color: #666666">.</span>inverse_transform([[<span style="color: #666666">-10</span>, <span style="color: #666666">-10</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> w3 <span style="color: #666666">+</span> b3], [<span style="color: #666666">10</span>, <span style="color: #666666">10</span> <span style="color: #666666">*</span> w3 <span style="color: #666666">+</span> b3]])
<span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># Plot all three decision boundaries</span>
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>figure(figsize<span style="color: #666666">=</span>(<span style="color: #666666">11</span>, <span style="color: #666666">4</span>))
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(line1[:, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>], line1[:, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>], <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;k:&quot;</span>, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;LinearSVC&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(line2[:, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>], line2[:, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>], <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;b--&quot;</span>, linewidth<span style="color: #666666">=2</span>, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;SVC&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(line3[:, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>], line3[:, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>], <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;r-&quot;</span>, label<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;SGDClassifier&quot;</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(X[:, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>][y<span style="color: #666666">==1</span>], X[:, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>][y<span style="color: #666666">==1</span>], <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;bs&quot;</span>) <span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># label=&quot;Iris-Versicolor&quot;</span>
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>plot(X[:, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>][y<span style="color: #666666">==0</span>], X[:, <span style="color: #666666">1</span>][y<span style="color: #666666">==0</span>], <span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;yo&quot;</span>) <span style="color: #408080; font-style: italic"># label=&quot;Iris-Setosa&quot;</span>
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>xlabel(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Petal length&quot;</span>, fontsize<span style="color: #666666">=14</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>ylabel(<span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;Petal width&quot;</span>, fontsize<span style="color: #666666">=14</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>legend(loc<span style="color: #666666">=</span><span style="color: #BA2121">&quot;upper center&quot;</span>, fontsize<span style="color: #666666">=14</span>)
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>axis([<span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">5.5</span>, <span style="color: #666666">0</span>, <span style="color: #666666">2</span>])
plt<span style="color: #666666">.</span>show()
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<h2 id="what-is-a-hyperplane">What is a hyperplane? </h2>
<p>The aim of the SVM algorithm is to find a hyperplane in a
\( p \)-dimensional space, where \( p \) is the number of features that
distinctly classifies the data points.
</p>
<p>In a \( p \)-dimensional space, a hyperplane is what we call an affine subspace of dimension of \( p-1 \).
As an example, in two dimension, a hyperplane is simply as straight line while in three dimensions it is
a two-dimensional subspace, or stated simply, a plane.
</p>
<p>In two dimensions, with the variables \( x_1 \) and \( x_2 \), the hyperplane is defined as</p>
$$
b+w_1x_1+w_2x_2=0,
$$
<p>where \( b \) is the intercept and \( w_1 \) and \( w_2 \) define the elements of a vector orthogonal to the line
\( b+w_1x_1+w_2x_2=0 \).
In two dimensions we define the vectors \( \boldsymbol{x} =[x1,x2] \) and \( \boldsymbol{w}=[w1,w2] \).
We can then rewrite the above equation as
</p>
$$
\boldsymbol{x}^T\boldsymbol{w}+b=0.
$$
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="a-p-dimensional-space-of-features">A \( p \)-dimensional space of features </h2>
<p>We limit ourselves to two classes of outputs \( y_i \) and assign these classes the values \( y_i = \pm 1 \).
In a \( p \)-dimensional space of say \( p \) features we have a hyperplane defines as
</p>
$$
b+wx_1+w_2x_2+\dots +w_px_p=0.
$$
<p>If we define a
matrix \( \boldsymbol{X}=\left[\boldsymbol{x}_1,\boldsymbol{x}_2,\dots, \boldsymbol{x}_p\right] \)
of dimension \( n\times p \), where \( n \) represents the observations for each feature and each vector \( x_i \) is a column vector of the matrix \( \boldsymbol{X} \),
</p>
$$
\boldsymbol{x}_i = \begin{bmatrix} x_{i1} \\ x_{i2} \\ \dots \\ \dots \\ x_{ip} \end{bmatrix}.
$$
<p>If the above condition is not met for a given vector \( \boldsymbol{x}_i \) we have </p>
$$
b+w_1x_{i1}+w_2x_{i2}+\dots +w_px_{ip} >0,
$$
<p>if our output \( y_i=1 \).
In this case we say that \( \boldsymbol{x}_i \) lies on one of the sides of the hyperplane and if
</p>
$$
b+w_1x_{i1}+w_2x_{i2}+\dots +w_px_{ip} < 0,
$$
<p>for the class of observations \( y_i=-1 \),
then \( \boldsymbol{x}_i \) lies on the other side.
</p>
<p>Equivalently, for the two classes of observations we have </p>
$$
y_i\left(b+w_1x_{i1}+w_2x_{i2}+\dots +w_px_{ip}\right) > 0.
$$
<p>When we try to separate hyperplanes, if it exists, we can use it to construct a natural classifier: a test observation is assigned a given class depending on which side of the hyperplane it is located.</p>
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<h2 id="the-two-dimensional-case">The two-dimensional case </h2>
<p>Let us try to develop our intuition about SVMs by limiting ourselves to a two-dimensional
plane. To separate the two classes of data points, there are many
possible lines (hyperplanes if you prefer a more strict naming)
that could be chosen. Our objective is to find a
plane that has the maximum margin, i.e the maximum distance between
data points of both classes. Maximizing the margin distance provides
some reinforcement so that future data points can be classified with
more confidence.
</p>
<p>What a linear classifier attempts to accomplish is to split the
feature space into two half spaces by placing a hyperplane between the
data points. This hyperplane will be our decision boundary. All
points on one side of the plane will belong to class one and all points
on the other side of the plane will belong to the second class two.
</p>
<p>Unfortunately there are many ways in which we can place a hyperplane
to divide the data. Below is an example of two candidate hyperplanes
for our data sample.
</p>
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<h2 id="getting-into-the-details">Getting into the details </h2>
<p>Let us define the function</p>
$$
f(x) = \boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}+b = 0,
$$
<p>as the function that determines the line \( L \) that separates two classes (our two features), see the figure here. </p>
<p>Any point defined by \( \boldsymbol{x}_i \) and \( \boldsymbol{x}_2 \) on the line \( L \) will satisfy \( \boldsymbol{w}^T(\boldsymbol{x}_1-\boldsymbol{x}_2)=0 \). </p>
<p>The signed distance \( \delta \) from any point defined by a vector \( \boldsymbol{x} \) and a point \( \boldsymbol{x}_0 \) on the line \( L \) is then</p>
$$
\delta = \frac{1}{\vert\vert \boldsymbol{w}\vert\vert}(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}+b).
$$
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<h2 id="first-attempt-at-a-minimization-approach">First attempt at a minimization approach </h2>
<p>How do we find the parameter \( b \) and the vector \( \boldsymbol{w} \)? What we could
do is to define a cost function which now contains the set of all
misclassified points \( M \) and attempt to minimize this function
</p>
$$
C(\boldsymbol{w},b) = -\sum_{i\in M} y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b).
$$
<p>We could now for example define all values \( y_i =1 \) as misclassified in case we have \( \boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b < 0 \) and the opposite if we have \( y_i=-1 \). Taking the derivatives gives us</p>
$$
\frac{\partial C}{\partial b} = -\sum_{i\in M} y_i,
$$
<p>and </p>
$$
\frac{\partial C}{\partial \boldsymbol{w}} = -\sum_{i\in M} y_ix_i.
$$
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="solving-the-equations">Solving the equations </h2>
<p>We can now use the Newton-Raphson method or different variants of the gradient descent family (from plain gradient descent to various stochastic gradient descent approaches) to solve the equations</p>
$$
b \leftarrow b +\eta \frac{\partial C}{\partial b},
$$
<p>and</p>
$$
\boldsymbol{w} \leftarrow \boldsymbol{w} +\eta \frac{\partial C}{\partial \boldsymbol{w}},
$$
<p>where \( \eta \) is our by now well-known learning rate. </p>
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<h2 id="code-example">Code Example </h2>
<p>The equations we discussed above can be coded rather easily (the
framework is similar to what we developed for logistic
regression). We are going to set up a simple case with two classes only and we want to find a line which separates them the best possible way.
</p>
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<h2 id="problems-with-the-simpler-approach">Problems with the Simpler Approach </h2>
<p>There are however problems with this approach, although it looks
pretty straightforward to implement. When running the above code, we see that we can easily end up with many diffeent lines which separate the two classes.
</p>
<p>For small
gaps between the entries, we may also end up needing many iterations
before the solutions converge and if the data cannot be separated
properly into two distinct classes, we may not experience a converge
at all.
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<h2 id="a-better-approach">A better approach </h2>
<p>A better approach is rather to try to define a large margin between
the two classes (if they are well separated from the beginning).
</p>
<p>Thus, we wish to find a margin \( M \) with \( \boldsymbol{w} \) normalized to
\( \vert\vert \boldsymbol{w}\vert\vert =1 \) subject to the condition
</p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b) \geq M \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i=1,2,\dots, p.
$$
<p>All points are thus at a signed distance from the decision boundary defined by the line \( L \). The parameters \( b \) and \( w_1 \) and \( w_2 \) define this line. </p>
<p>We seek thus the largest value \( M \) defined by</p>
$$
\frac{1}{\vert \vert \boldsymbol{w}\vert\vert}y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b) \geq M \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i=1,2,\dots, n,
$$
<p>or just </p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b) \geq M\vert \vert \boldsymbol{w}\vert\vert \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i.
$$
<p>If we scale the equation so that \( \vert \vert \boldsymbol{w}\vert\vert = 1/M \), we have to find the minimum of
\( \boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{w}=\vert \vert \boldsymbol{w}\vert\vert \) (the norm) subject to the condition
</p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b) \geq 1 \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i.
$$
<p>We have thus defined our margin as the invers of the norm of
\( \boldsymbol{w} \). We want to minimize the norm in order to have a as large as
possible margin \( M \). Before we proceed, we need to remind ourselves
about Lagrangian multipliers.
</p>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="a-quick-reminder-on-lagrangian-multipliers">A quick Reminder on Lagrangian Multipliers </h2>
<p>Consider a function of three independent variables \( f(x,y,z) \) . For the function \( f \) to be an
extreme we have
</p>
$$
df=0.
$$
<p>A necessary and sufficient condition is</p>
$$
\frac{\partial f}{\partial x} =\frac{\partial f}{\partial y}=\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}=0,
$$
<p>due to</p>
$$
df = \frac{\partial f}{\partial x}dx+\frac{\partial f}{\partial y}dy+\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}dz.
$$
<p>In many problems the variables \( x,y,z \) are often subject to constraints (such as those above for the margin)
so that they are no longer all independent. It is possible at least in principle to use each
constraint to eliminate one variable
and to proceed with a new and smaller set of independent varables.
</p>
<p>The use of so-called Lagrangian multipliers is an alternative technique when the elimination
of variables is incovenient or undesirable. Assume that we have an equation of constraint on
the variables \( x,y,z \)
</p>
$$
\phi(x,y,z) = 0,
$$
<p> resulting in</p>
$$
d\phi = \frac{\partial \phi}{\partial x}dx+\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial y}dy+\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial z}dz =0.
$$
<p>Now we cannot set anymore</p>
$$
\frac{\partial f}{\partial x} =\frac{\partial f}{\partial y}=\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}=0,
$$
<p>if \( df=0 \) is wanted
because there are now only two independent variables! Assume \( x \) and \( y \) are the independent
variables.
Then \( dz \) is no longer arbitrary.
</p>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="adding-the-multiplier">Adding the Multiplier </h2>
<p>However, we can add to</p>
$$
df = \frac{\partial f}{\partial x}dx+\frac{\partial f}{\partial y}dy+\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}dz,
$$
<p>a multiplum of \( d\phi \), viz. \( \lambda d\phi \), resulting in</p>
$$
df+\lambda d\phi = (\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}+\lambda
\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial x})dx+(\frac{\partial f}{\partial y}+\lambda\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial y})dy+
(\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}+\lambda\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial z})dz =0.
$$
<p>Our multiplier is chosen so that</p>
$$
\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}+\lambda\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial z} =0.
$$
<p>We need to remember that we took \( dx \) and \( dy \) to be arbitrary and thus we must have</p>
$$
\frac{\partial f}{\partial x}+\lambda\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial x} =0,
$$
<p>and</p>
$$
\frac{\partial f}{\partial y}+\lambda\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial y} =0.
$$
<p>When all these equations are satisfied, \( df=0 \). We have four unknowns, \( x,y,z \) and
\( \lambda \). Actually we want only \( x,y,z \), \( \lambda \) needs not to be determined,
it is therefore often called
Lagrange's undetermined multiplier.
If we have a set of constraints \( \phi_k \) we have the equations
</p>
$$
\frac{\partial f}{\partial x_i}+\sum_k\lambda_k\frac{\partial \phi_k}{\partial x_i} =0.
$$
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="setting-up-the-problem">Setting up the Problem </h2>
<p>In order to solve the above problem, we define the following Lagrangian function to be minimized </p>
$$
{\cal L}(\lambda,b,\boldsymbol{w})=\frac{1}{2}\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{w}-\sum_{i=1}^n\lambda_i\left[y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)-1\right],
$$
<p>where \( \lambda_i \) is a so-called Lagrange multiplier subject to the condition \( \lambda_i \geq 0 \).</p>
<p>Taking the derivatives with respect to \( b \) and \( \boldsymbol{w} \) we obtain </p>
$$
\frac{\partial {\cal L}}{\partial b} = -\sum_{i} \lambda_iy_i=0,
$$
<p>and </p>
$$
\frac{\partial {\cal L}}{\partial \boldsymbol{w}} = 0 = \boldsymbol{w}-\sum_{i} \lambda_iy_i\boldsymbol{x}_i.
$$
<p>Inserting these constraints into the equation for \( {\cal L} \) we obtain</p>
$$
{\cal L}=\sum_i\lambda_i-\frac{1}{2}\sum_{ij}^n\lambda_i\lambda_jy_iy_j\boldsymbol{x}_i^T\boldsymbol{x}_j,
$$
<p>subject to the constraints \( \lambda_i\geq 0 \) and \( \sum_i\lambda_iy_i=0 \).
We must in addition satisfy the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karush%E2%80%93Kuhn%E2%80%93Tucker_conditions" target="_blank">Karush-Kuhn-Tucker</a> (KKT) condition
</p>
$$
\lambda_i\left[y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b) -1\right] \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i.
$$
<ol>
<li> If \( \lambda_i > 0 \), then \( y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)=1 \) and we say that \( x_i \) is on the boundary.</li>
<li> If \( y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)> 1 \), we say \( x_i \) is not on the boundary and we set \( \lambda_i=0 \).</li>
</ol>
<p>When \( \lambda_i > 0 \), the vectors \( \boldsymbol{x}_i \) are called support vectors. They are the vectors closest to the line (or hyperplane) and define the margin \( M \). </p>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="the-problem-to-solve">The problem to solve </h2>
<p>We can rewrite </p>
$$
{\cal L}=\sum_i\lambda_i-\frac{1}{2}\sum_{ij}^n\lambda_i\lambda_jy_iy_j\boldsymbol{x}_i^T\boldsymbol{x}_j,
$$
<p>and its constraints in terms of a matrix-vector problem where we minimize w.r.t. \( \lambda \) the following problem</p>
$$
\frac{1}{2} \boldsymbol{\lambda}^T\begin{bmatrix} y_1y_1\boldsymbol{x}_1^T\boldsymbol{x}_1 & y_1y_2\boldsymbol{x}_1^T\boldsymbol{x}_2 & \dots & \dots & y_1y_n\boldsymbol{x}_1^T\boldsymbol{x}_n \\
y_2y_1\boldsymbol{x}_2^T\boldsymbol{x}_1 & y_2y_2\boldsymbol{x}_2^T\boldsymbol{x}_2 & \dots & \dots & y_1y_n\boldsymbol{x}_2^T\boldsymbol{x}_n \\
\dots & \dots & \dots & \dots & \dots \\
\dots & \dots & \dots & \dots & \dots \\
y_ny_1\boldsymbol{x}_n^T\boldsymbol{x}_1 & y_ny_2\boldsymbol{x}_n^T\boldsymbol{x}_2 & \dots & \dots & y_ny_n\boldsymbol{x}_n^T\boldsymbol{x}_n \\
\end{bmatrix}\boldsymbol{\lambda}-\mathbb{1}\boldsymbol{\lambda},
$$
<p>subject to \( \boldsymbol{y}^T\boldsymbol{\lambda}=0 \). Here we defined the vectors \( \boldsymbol{\lambda} =[\lambda_1,\lambda_2,\dots,\lambda_n] \) and
\( \boldsymbol{y}=[y_1,y_2,\dots,y_n] \).
</p>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="the-last-steps">The last steps </h2>
<p>Solving the above problem, yields the values of \( \lambda_i \).
To find the coefficients of your hyperplane we need simply to compute
</p>
$$
\boldsymbol{w}=\sum_{i} \lambda_iy_i\boldsymbol{x}_i.
$$
<p>With our vector \( \boldsymbol{w} \) we can in turn find the value of the intercept \( b \) (here in two dimensions) via </p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)=1,
$$
<p>resulting in</p>
$$
b = \frac{1}{y_i}-\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i,
$$
<p>or if we write it out in terms of the support vectors only, with \( N_s \) being their number, we have</p>
$$
b = \frac{1}{N_s}\sum_{j\in N_s}\left(y_j-\sum_{i=1}^n\lambda_iy_i\boldsymbol{x}_i^T\boldsymbol{x}_j\right).
$$
<p>With our hyperplane coefficients we can use our classifier to assign any observation by simply using </p>
$$
y_i = \mathrm{sign}(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b).
$$
<p>Below we discuss how to find the optimal values of \( \lambda_i \). Before we proceed however, we discuss now the so-called soft classifier. </p>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="a-soft-classifier">A soft classifier </h2>
<p>Till now, the margin is strictly defined by the support vectors. This defines what is called a hard classifier, that is the margins are well defined.</p>
<p>Suppose now that classes overlap in feature space, as shown in the
figure here. One way to deal with this problem before we define the
so-called <b>kernel approach</b>, is to allow a kind of slack in the sense
that we allow some points to be on the wrong side of the margin.
</p>
<p>We introduce thus the so-called <b>slack</b> variables \( \boldsymbol{\xi} =[\xi_1,x_2,\dots,x_n] \) and
modify our previous equation
</p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)=1,
$$
<p>to </p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)=1-\xi_i,
$$
<p>with the requirement \( \xi_i\geq 0 \). The total violation is now \( \sum_i\xi \).
The value \( \xi_i \) in the constraint the last constraint corresponds to the amount by which the prediction
\( y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)=1 \) is on the wrong side of its margin. Hence by bounding the sum \( \sum_i \xi_i \),
we bound the total amount by which predictions fall on the wrong side of their margins.
</p>
<p>Misclassifications occur when \( \xi_i > 1 \). Thus bounding the total sum by some value \( C \) bounds in turn the total number of
misclassifications.
</p>
<!-- !split --><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
<h2 id="soft-optmization-problem">Soft optmization problem </h2>
<p>This has in turn the consequences that we change our optmization problem to finding the minimum of </p>
$$
{\cal L}=\frac{1}{2}\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{w}-\sum_{i=1}^n\lambda_i\left[y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)-(1-\xi_)\right]+C\sum_{i=1}^n\xi_i-\sum_{i=1}^n\gamma_i\xi_i,
$$
<p>subject to </p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b)=1-\xi_i \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i,
$$
<p>with the requirement \( \xi_i\geq 0 \).</p>
<p>Taking the derivatives with respect to \( b \) and \( \boldsymbol{w} \) we obtain </p>
$$
\frac{\partial {\cal L}}{\partial b} = -\sum_{i} \lambda_iy_i=0,
$$
<p>and </p>
$$
\frac{\partial {\cal L}}{\partial \boldsymbol{w}} = 0 = \boldsymbol{w}-\sum_{i} \lambda_iy_i\boldsymbol{x}_i,
$$
<p>and</p>
$$
\lambda_i = C-\gamma_i \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i.
$$
<p>Inserting these constraints into the equation for \( {\cal L} \) we obtain the same equation as before</p>
$$
{\cal L}=\sum_i\lambda_i-\frac{1}{2}\sum_{ij}^n\lambda_i\lambda_jy_iy_j\boldsymbol{x}_i^T\boldsymbol{x}_j,
$$
<p>but now subject to the constraints \( \lambda_i\geq 0 \), \( \sum_i\lambda_iy_i=0 \) and \( 0\leq\lambda_i \leq C \).
We must in addition satisfy the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition which now reads
</p>
$$
\lambda_i\left[y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b) -(1-\xi_)\right]=0 \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i,
$$
$$
\gamma_i\xi_i = 0,
$$
<p>and </p>
$$
y_i(\boldsymbol{w}^T\boldsymbol{x}_i+b) -(1-\xi_) \geq 0 \hspace{0.1cm}\forall i.
$$
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