Machine learning is the science of giving computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed. The idea is that there exist generic algorithms which can be used to find patterns in a broad class of data sets without having to write code specifically for each problem. The algorithm will build its own logic based on the data.
Machine learning is a subfield of computer science, and is closely related to computational statistics. It evolved from the study of pattern recognition in artificial intelligence (AI) research, and has made contributions to AI tasks like computer vision, natural language processing and speech recognition. It has also, especially in later years, found applications in a wide variety of other areas, including bioinformatics, economy, physics, finance and marketing.
The approaches to machine learning are many, but are often split into two main categories. In supervised learning we know the answer to a problem, and let the computer deduce the logic behind it. On the other hand, unsupervised learning is a method for finding patterns and relationship in data sets without any prior knowledge of the system. Some authours also operate with a third category, namely reinforcement learning. This is a paradigm of learning inspired by behavioural psychology, where learning is achieved by trial-and-error, solely from rewards and punishment.
Another way to categorize machine learning tasks is to consider the desired output of a system. Some of the most common tasks are:
Our emphasis here is on understanding the mathematical aspects of different algorithms, however, where possible we will emphasize the importance of using available software.
If you have Python installed (we recommend Python3) and you feel pretty familiar with installing different packages, we recommend that you install the following Python packages via pip as
For OSX users we recommend also, after having installed Xcode, to install brew. Brew allows for a seamless installation of additional software via for example
You will also find it convenient to utilize R. Jupyter/Ipython notebook allows you run R code interactively in your browser. The software library R is tuned to statistically analysis and allows for an easy usage of the tools we will discuss in these texts.
To install R with Jupyter notebook following the link here
For the C++ affecianodas, Jupyter/IPython notebook allows you also to install C++ and run codes written in this language interactively in the browser. Since we will emphasize writing many of the algorithms yourself, you can thus opt for either Python or C++ as programming languages.
To add more entropy, cython can also be used when running your notebooks. It means that Python with the Jupyter/IPython notebook setup allows you to integrate widely popular softwares and tools for scientific computing. With its versatility, including symbolic operations, Python offers a unique computational environment. Your Jupyter/IPython notebook can easily be converted into a nicely rendered PDF file or a Latex file for further processing. For example, convert to latex as
jupyter nbconvert filename.ipynb --to latex
If you use the light mark-up language doconce you can convert a standard ascii text file into various HTML formats, ipython notebooks, latex files, pdf files etc.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy import sparse
import pandas as pd
from IPython.display import display
eye = np.eye(4)
print(eye)
sparse_mtx = sparse.csr_matrix(eye)
print(sparse_mtx)
x = np.linspace(-10,10,100)
y = np.sin(x)
plt.plot(x,y,marker='x')
plt.show()
data = {'Name': ["John", "Anna", "Peter", "Linda"], 'Location': ["Nairobi", "Napoli", "London", "Buenos Aires"], 'Age':[51, 21, 34, 45]}
data_pandas = pd.DataFrame(data)
display(data_pandas)
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy import sparse
import pandas as pd
from IPython.display import display
import mglearn
import sklearn
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeRegressor
x, y = mglearn.datasets.make_wave(n_samples=100)
line = np.linspace(-3,3,1000,endpoint=False).reshape(-1,1)
reg = DecisionTreeRegressor(min_samples_split=3).fit(x,y)
plt.plot(line, reg.predict(line), label="decision tree")
regline = LinearRegression().fit(x,y)
plt.plot(line, regline.predict(line), label= "Linear Rgression")
plt.show()
The population dynamics of a simple predator-prey system is a classical example shown in many biology textbooks when ecological systems are discussed. The system contains all elements of the scientific method:
Lots of data about populations of hares and lynx collected from furs in Hudson Bay, Canada, are available. It is known that the populations oscillate. Why? Here we start by
Most mammalian predators rely on a variety of prey, which complicates mathematical modeling; however, a few predators have become highly specialized and seek almost exclusively a single prey species. An example of this simplified predator-prey interaction is seen in Canadian northern forests, where the populations of the lynx and the snowshoe hare are intertwined in a life and death struggle.
One reason that this particular system has been so extensively studied is that the Hudson Bay company kept careful records of all furs from the early 1800s into the 1900s. The records for the furs collected by the Hudson Bay company showed distinct oscillations (approximately 12 year periods), suggesting that these species caused almost periodic fluctuations of each other's populations. The table here shows data from 1900 to 1920.
| Year | Hares (x1000) | Lynx (x1000) |
|---|---|---|
| 1900 | 30.0 | 4.0 |
| 1901 | 47.2 | 6.1 |
| 1902 | 70.2 | 9.8 |
| 1903 | 77.4 | 35.2 |
| 1904 | 36.3 | 59.4 |
| 1905 | 20.6 | 41.7 |
| 1906 | 18.1 | 19.0 |
| 1907 | 21.4 | 13.0 |
| 1908 | 22.0 | 8.3 |
| 1909 | 25.4 | 9.1 |
| 1910 | 27.1 | 7.4 |
| 1911 | 40.3 | 8.0 |
| 1912 | 57 | 12.3 |
| 1913 | 76.6 | 19.5 |
| 1914 | 52.3 | 45.7 |
| 1915 | 19.5 | 51.1 |
| 1916 | 11.2 | 29.7 |
| 1917 | 7.6 | 15.8 |
| 1918 | 14.6 | 9.7 |
| 1919 | 16.2 | 10.1 |
| 1920 | 24.7 | 8.6 |
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
# Load in data file
data = np.loadtxt('src/Hudson_Bay.csv', delimiter=',', skiprows=1)
# Make arrays containing x-axis and hares and lynx populations
year = data[:,0]
hares = data[:,1]
lynx = data[:,2]
plt.plot(year, hares ,'b-+', year, lynx, 'r-o')
plt.axis([1900,1920,0, 100.0])
plt.xlabel(r'Year')
plt.ylabel(r'Numbers of hares and lynx ')
plt.legend(('Hares','Lynx'), loc='upper right')
plt.title(r'Population of hares and lynx from 1900-1920 (x1000)}')
plt.savefig('Hudson_Bay_data.pdf')
plt.savefig('Hudson_Bay_data.png')
plt.show()
We see from the plot that there are indeed fluctuations. We would like to create a mathematical model that explains these population fluctuations. Ecologists have predicted that in a simple predator-prey system that a rise in prey population is followed (with a lag) by a rise in the predator population. When the predator population is sufficiently high, then the prey population begins dropping. After the prey population falls, then the predator population falls, which allows the prey population to recover and complete one cycle of this interaction. Thus, we see that qualitatively oscillations occur. Can a mathematical model predict this? What causes cycles to slow or speed up? What affects the amplitude of the oscillation or do you expect to see the oscillations damp to a stable equilibrium? The models tend to ignore factors like climate and other complicating factors. How significant are these?
The classical way (in all books) is to present the Lotka-Volterra equations: $$ \begin{align*} \frac{dH}{dt} &= H(a - b L)\\ \frac{dL}{dt} &= - L(d - c H) \end{align*} $$
Here,
The population of hares evolves due to births and deaths exactly as a bacteria population: $$ \Delta H = a \Delta t H^n $$ However, hares have an additional loss in the population because they are eaten by lynx. All the hares and lynx can form \( H\cdot L \) pairs in total. When such pairs meet during a time interval \( \Delta t \), there is some small probablity that the lynx will eat the hare. So in fraction \( b\Delta t HL \), the lynx eat hares. This loss of hares must be accounted for. Subtracted in the equation for hares: $$ \Delta H = a\Delta t H^n - b \Delta t H^nL^n$$
We assume that the primary growth for the lynx population depends on sufficient food for raising lynx kittens, which implies an adequate source of nutrients from predation on hares. Thus, the growth of the lynx population does not only depend of how many lynx there are, but on how many hares they can eat. In a time interval \( \Delta t HL \) hares and lynx can meet, and in a fraction \( b\Delta t HL \) the lynx eats the hare. All of this does not contribute to the growth of lynx, again just a fraction of \( b\Delta t HL \) that we write as \( d\Delta t HL \). In addition, lynx die just as in the population dynamics with one isolated animal population, leading to a loss \( -c\Delta t L \).
The accounting of lynx then looks like $$ \Delta L = d\Delta t H^nL^n - c\Delta t L^n$$
By writing up the definition of \( \Delta H \) and \( \Delta L \), and putting all assumed known terms \( H^n \) and \( L^n \) on the right-hand side, we have $$ H^{n+1} = H^n + a\Delta t H^n - b\Delta t H^n L^n $$ $$ L^{n+1} = L^n + d\Delta t H^nL^n - c\Delta t L^n $$
Note:
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def solver(m, H0, L0, dt, a, b, c, d, t0):
"""Solve the difference equations for H and L over m years
with time step dt (measured in years."""
num_intervals = int(m/float(dt))
t = np.linspace(t0, t0 + m, num_intervals+1)
H = np.zeros(t.size)
L = np.zeros(t.size)
print('Init:', H0, L0, dt)
H[0] = H0
L[0] = L0
for n in range(0, len(t)-1):
H[n+1] = H[n] + a*dt*H[n] - b*dt*H[n]*L[n]
L[n+1] = L[n] + d*dt*H[n]*L[n] - c*dt*L[n]
return H, L, t
# Load in data file
data = np.loadtxt('src/Hudson_Bay.csv', delimiter=',', skiprows=1)
# Make arrays containing x-axis and hares and lynx populations
t_e = data[:,0]
H_e = data[:,1]
L_e = data[:,2]
# Simulate using the model
H, L, t = solver(m=20, H0=34.91, L0=3.857, dt=0.1,
a=0.4807, b=0.02482, c=0.9272, d=0.02756,
t0=1900)
# Visualize simulations and data
plt.plot(t_e, H_e, 'b-+', t_e, L_e, 'r-o', t, H, 'm--', t, L, 'k--')
plt.xlabel('Year')
plt.ylabel('Numbers of hares and lynx')
plt.axis([1900, 1920, 0, 140])
plt.title(r'Population of hares and lynx 1900-1920 (x1000)')
plt.legend(('H_e', 'L_e', 'H', 'L'), loc='upper left')
plt.savefig('Hudson_Bay_sim.pdf')
plt.savefig('Hudson_Bay_sim.png')
plt.show()
If we perform a least-square fitting, we can find optimal values for the parameters \( a \), \( b \), \( d \), \( c \). The optimal parameters are \( a=0.4807 \), \( b=0.02482 \), \( d=0.9272 \) and \( c=0.02756 \). These parameters result in a slightly modified initial conditions, namely \( H(0) = 34.91 \) and \( L(0)=3.857 \). With these parameters we are now ready to solve the equations and plot these data together with the experimental values.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from IPython.display import display
import sklearn
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeRegressor
data = np.loadtxt('src/Hudson_Bay.csv', delimiter=',', skiprows=1)
x = data[:,0]
y = data[:,1]
line = np.linspace(1900,1920,1000,endpoint=False).reshape(-1,1)
reg = DecisionTreeRegressor(min_samples_split=3).fit(x.reshape(-1,1),y.reshape(-1,1))
plt.plot(line, reg.predict(line), label="decision tree")
regline = LinearRegression().fit(x.reshape(-1,1),y.reshape(-1,1))
plt.plot(line, regline.predict(line), label= "Linear Regression")
plt.plot(x, y, label= "Linear Regression")
plt.show()
HudsonBay = read.csv("src/Hudson_Bay.csv",header=T)
fix(HudsonBay)
dim(HudsonBay)
names(HudsonBay)
plot(HudsonBay$Year, HudsonBay$Hares..x1000.)
attach(HudsonBay)
plot(Year, Hares..x1000.)
plot(Year, Hares..x1000., col="red", varwidth=T, xlab="Years", ylab="Haresx 1000")
summary(HudsonBay)
summary(Hares..x1000.)
library(MASS)
library(ISLR)
scatter.smooth(x=Year, y = Hares..x1000.)
linearMod = lm(Hares..x1000. ~ Year)
print(linearMod)
summary(linearMod)
plot(linearMod)
confint(linearMod)
predict(linearMod,data.frame(Year=c(1910,1914,1920)),interval="confidence")
set.seed(1485)
len = 24
x = runif(len)
y = x^3+rnorm(len, 0,0.06)
ds = data.frame(x = x, y = y)
str(ds)
plot( y ~ x, main ="Known cubic with noise")
s = seq(0,1,length =100)
lines(s, s^3, lty =2, col ="green")
m = nls(y ~ I(x^power), data = ds, start = list(power=1), trace = T)
class(m)
summary(m)
power = round(summary(m)$coefficients[1], 3)
power.se = round(summary(m)$coefficients[2], 3)
plot(y ~ x, main = "Fitted power model", sub = "Blue: fit; green: known")
s = seq(0, 1, length = 100)
lines(s, s^3, lty = 2, col = "green")
lines(s, predict(m, list(x = s)), lty = 1, col = "blue")
text(0, 0.5, paste("y =x^ (", power, " +/- ", power.se, ")", sep = ""), pos = 4)