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update on book

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Morten Hjorth-Jensen
2021-08-27 07:15:11 +02:00
parent d35fa373a3
commit 747293f0d3
36 changed files with 393 additions and 381 deletions
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doc/LectureNotes/chapter4.ipynb
+32 -32
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@@ -16,11 +16,11 @@
"coefficients of a functional fit (say a polynomial) in order to be\n",
"able to predict the response of a continuous variable on some unseen\n",
"data. The fit to the continuous variable $y_i$ is based on some\n",
"independent variables $\\hat{x}_i$. Linear regression resulted in\n",
"independent variables $x_i$. Linear regression resulted in\n",
"analytical expressions for standard ordinary Least Squares or Ridge\n",
"regression (in terms of matrices to invert) for several quantities,\n",
"ranging from the variance and thereby the confidence intervals of the\n",
"parameters $\\hat{\\beta}$ to the mean squared error. If we can invert\n",
"optimal parameters $\\hat{\\beta}$ to the mean squared error. If we can invert\n",
"the product of the design matrices, linear regression gives then a\n",
"simple recipe for fitting our data.\n",
"\n",
@@ -65,7 +65,7 @@
"from $k=0,\\dots,K-1$ (i.e. $K$ classes).\n",
"\n",
"The goal is to predict the\n",
"output classes from the design matrix $\\hat{X}\\in\\mathbb{R}^{n\\times p}$\n",
"output classes from the design matrix $\\boldsymbol{X}\\in\\mathbb{R}^{n\\times p}$\n",
"made of $n$ samples, each of which carries $p$ features or predictors. The\n",
"primary goal is to identify the classes to which new unseen samples\n",
"belong.\n",
@@ -107,7 +107,7 @@
"\n",
"$$\n",
"\\begin{equation}\n",
"\\hat{y} = \\hat{X}^T\\hat{\\beta} + \\hat{\\epsilon},\n",
"\\boldsymbol{y} = \\boldsymbol{X}^T\\boldsymbol{\\beta} + \\boldsymbol{\\epsilon},\n",
"\\label{_auto1} \\tag{1}\n",
"\\end{equation}\n",
"$$"
@@ -117,8 +117,8 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"where $\\hat{y}$ is a vector representing the possible outcomes, $\\hat{X}$ is our\n",
"$n\\times p$ design matrix and $\\hat{\\beta}$ represents our estimators/predictors.\n",
"where $\\boldsymbol{y}$ is a vector representing the possible outcomes, $\\boldsymbol{X}$ is our\n",
"$n\\times p$ design matrix and $\\boldsymbol{\\beta}$ represents our estimators/predictors.\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"The main problem with our function is that it takes values on the\n",
@@ -380,8 +380,8 @@
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\begin{align*}\n",
"p(y_i=1|x_i,\\hat{\\beta}) &= \\frac{\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}},\\nonumber\\\\\n",
"p(y_i=0|x_i,\\hat{\\beta}) &= 1 - p(y_i=1|x_i,\\hat{\\beta}),\n",
"p(y_i=1|x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta}) &= \\frac{\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}},\\nonumber\\\\\n",
"p(y_i=0|x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta}) &= 1 - p(y_i=1|x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta}),\n",
"\\end{align*}\n",
"$$"
]
@@ -390,7 +390,7 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"where $\\hat{\\beta}$ are the weights we wish to extract from data, in our case $\\beta_0$ and $\\beta_1$. \n",
"where $\\boldsymbol{\\beta}$ are the weights we wish to extract from data, in our case $\\beta_0$ and $\\beta_1$. \n",
"\n",
"Note that we used"
]
@@ -400,7 +400,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"p(y_i=0\\vert x_i, \\hat{\\beta}) = 1-p(y_i=1\\vert x_i, \\hat{\\beta}).\n",
"p(y_i=0\\vert x_i, \\boldsymbol{\\beta}) = 1-p(y_i=1\\vert x_i, \\boldsymbol{\\beta}).\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -422,7 +422,7 @@
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\begin{align*}\n",
"P(\\mathcal{D}|\\hat{\\beta})& = \\prod_{i=1}^n \\left[p(y_i=1|x_i,\\hat{\\beta})\\right]^{y_i}\\left[1-p(y_i=1|x_i,\\hat{\\beta}))\\right]^{1-y_i}\\nonumber \\\\\n",
"P(\\mathcal{D}|\\boldsymbol{\\beta})& = \\prod_{i=1}^n \\left[p(y_i=1|x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta})\\right]^{y_i}\\left[1-p(y_i=1|x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta}))\\right]^{1-y_i}\\nonumber \\\\\n",
"\\end{align*}\n",
"$$"
]
@@ -439,7 +439,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\mathcal{C}(\\hat{\\beta}) = \\sum_{i=1}^n \\left( y_i\\log{p(y_i=1|x_i,\\hat{\\beta})} + (1-y_i)\\log\\left[1-p(y_i=1|x_i,\\hat{\\beta}))\\right]\\right).\n",
"\\mathcal{C}(\\boldsymbol{\\beta}) = \\sum_{i=1}^n \\left( y_i\\log{p(y_i=1|x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta})} + (1-y_i)\\log\\left[1-p(y_i=1|x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta}))\\right]\\right).\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -455,7 +455,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\mathcal{C}(\\hat{\\beta}) = \\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_i(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i) -\\log{(1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)})}\\right).\n",
"\\mathcal{C}(\\boldsymbol{\\beta}) = \\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_i(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i) -\\log{(1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)})}\\right).\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -472,7 +472,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\mathcal{C}(\\hat{\\beta})=-\\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_i(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i) -\\log{(1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)})}\\right).\n",
"\\mathcal{C}(\\boldsymbol{\\beta})=-\\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_i(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i) -\\log{(1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)})}\\right).\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -484,7 +484,7 @@
"in practice we often supplement the cross-entropy with additional regularization terms, usually $L_1$ and $L_2$ regularization as we did for Ridge and Lasso regression.\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"The cross entropy is a convex function of the weights $\\hat{\\beta}$ and,\n",
"The cross entropy is a convex function of the weights $\\boldsymbol{\\beta}$ and,\n",
"therefore, any local minimizer is a global minimizer. \n",
"\n",
"\n",
@@ -497,7 +497,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{C}(\\hat{\\beta})}{\\partial \\beta_0} = -\\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_i -\\frac{\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}\\right),\n",
"\\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{C}(\\boldsymbol{\\beta})}{\\partial \\beta_0} = -\\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_i -\\frac{\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}\\right),\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -513,7 +513,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{C}(\\hat{\\beta})}{\\partial \\beta_1} = -\\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_ix_i -x_i\\frac{\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}\\right).\n",
"\\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{C}(\\boldsymbol{\\beta})}{\\partial \\beta_1} = -\\sum_{i=1}^n \\left(y_ix_i -x_i\\frac{\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_i)}}\\right).\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -521,9 +521,9 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Let us now define a vector $\\hat{y}$ with $n$ elements $y_i$, an\n",
"$n\\times p$ matrix $\\hat{X}$ which contains the $x_i$ values and a\n",
"vector $\\hat{p}$ of fitted probabilities $p(y_i\\vert x_i,\\hat{\\beta})$. We can rewrite in a more compact form the first\n",
"Let us now define a vector $\\boldsymbol{y}$ with $n$ elements $y_i$, an\n",
"$n\\times p$ matrix $\\boldsymbol{X}$ which contains the $x_i$ values and a\n",
"vector $\\boldsymbol{p}$ of fitted probabilities $p(y_i\\vert x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta})$. We can rewrite in a more compact form the first\n",
"derivative of cost function as"
]
},
@@ -532,7 +532,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{C}(\\hat{\\beta})}{\\partial \\hat{\\beta}} = -\\hat{X}^T\\left(\\hat{y}-\\hat{p}\\right).\n",
"\\frac{\\partial \\mathcal{C}(\\boldsymbol{\\beta})}{\\partial \\boldsymbol{\\beta}} = -\\boldsymbol{X}^T\\left(\\boldsymbol{y}-\\boldsymbol{p}\\right).\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -540,8 +540,8 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"If we in addition define a diagonal matrix $\\hat{W}$ with elements \n",
"$p(y_i\\vert x_i,\\hat{\\beta})(1-p(y_i\\vert x_i,\\hat{\\beta})$, we can obtain a compact expression of the second derivative as"
"If we in addition define a diagonal matrix $\\boldsymbol{W}$ with elements \n",
"$p(y_i\\vert x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta})(1-p(y_i\\vert x_i,\\boldsymbol{\\beta})$, we can obtain a compact expression of the second derivative as"
]
},
{
@@ -549,7 +549,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\frac{\\partial^2 \\mathcal{C}(\\hat{\\beta})}{\\partial \\hat{\\beta}\\partial \\hat{\\beta}^T} = \\hat{X}^T\\hat{W}\\hat{X}.\n",
"\\frac{\\partial^2 \\mathcal{C}(\\boldsymbol{\\beta})}{\\partial \\boldsymbol{\\beta}\\partial \\boldsymbol{\\beta}^T} = \\boldsymbol{X}^T\\boldsymbol{W}\\boldsymbol{X}.\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -565,7 +565,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\log{ \\frac{p(\\hat{\\beta}\\hat{x})}{1-p(\\hat{\\beta}\\hat{x})}} = \\beta_0+\\beta_1x_1+\\beta_2x_2+\\dots+\\beta_px_p.\n",
"\\log{ \\frac{p(\\boldsymbol{\\beta}\\boldsymbol{x})}{1-p(\\boldsymbol{\\beta}\\boldsymbol{x})}} = \\beta_0+\\beta_1x_1+\\beta_2x_2+\\dots+\\beta_px_p.\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -573,7 +573,7 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Here we defined $\\hat{x}=[1,x_1,x_2,\\dots,x_p]$ and $\\hat{\\beta}=[\\beta_0, \\beta_1, \\dots, \\beta_p]$ leading to"
"Here we defined $\\boldsymbol{x}=[1,x_1,x_2,\\dots,x_p]$ and $\\boldsymbol{\\beta}=[\\beta_0, \\beta_1, \\dots, \\beta_p]$ leading to"
]
},
{
@@ -581,7 +581,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"p(\\hat{\\beta}\\hat{x})=\\frac{ \\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_1+\\beta_2x_2+\\dots+\\beta_px_p)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_1+\\beta_2x_2+\\dots+\\beta_px_p)}}.\n",
"p(\\boldsymbol{\\beta}\\boldsymbol{x})=\\frac{ \\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_1+\\beta_2x_2+\\dots+\\beta_px_p)}}{1+\\exp{(\\beta_0+\\beta_1x_1+\\beta_2x_2+\\dots+\\beta_px_p)}}.\n",
"$$"
]
},
@@ -654,7 +654,7 @@
"multinomial logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis, the\n",
"input to the function is the result of $K$ distinct linear functions,\n",
"and the predicted probability for the $k$-th class given a sample\n",
"vector $\\hat{x}$ and a weighting vector $\\hat{\\beta}$ is (with two\n",
"vector $\\boldsymbol{x}$ and a weighting vector $\\boldsymbol{\\beta}$ is (with two\n",
"predictors):"
]
},
@@ -1183,7 +1183,7 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Defining the Jacobian matrix ${\\bf \\boldsymbol{J}}$ we have"
"Defining the Jacobian matrix $\\boldsymbol{J}$ we have"
]
},
{
@@ -1191,7 +1191,7 @@
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"$$\n",
"{\\bf \\boldsymbol{J}}=\\left( \\begin{array}{cc}\n",
"\\boldsymbol{J}=\\left( \\begin{array}{cc}\n",
" \\partial f_1/\\partial x_1 & \\partial f_1/\\partial x_2 \\\\\n",
" \\partial f_2/\\partial x_1 &\\partial f_2/\\partial x_2\n",
" \\end{array} \\right),\n",
@@ -1229,7 +1229,7 @@
"source": [
"$$\n",
"\\left(\\begin{array}{c} h_1^{n} \\\\ h_2^{n} \\end{array} \\right)=\n",
" -{\\bf \\boldsymbol{J}}^{-1}\n",
" -\\boldsymbol{J}^{-1}\n",
" \\left(\\begin{array}{c} f_1(x_1^{n},x_2^{n}) \\\\ f_2(x_1^{n},x_2^{n}) \\end{array} \\right).\n",
"$$"
]
@@ -1240,7 +1240,7 @@
"source": [
"We need thus to compute the inverse of the Jacobian matrix and it\n",
"is to understand that difficulties may\n",
"arise in case ${\\bf \\boldsymbol{J}}$ is nearly singular.\n",
"arise in case $\\boldsymbol{J}$ is nearly singular.\n",
"\n",
"It is rather straightforward to extend the above scheme to systems of\n",
"more than two non-linear equations. In our case, the Jacobian matrix is given by the Hessian that represents the second derivative of cost function. \n",